Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program Long Term Resource Monitoring

Using Markov chains to quantitatively assess movement patterns of invasive fishes impacted by a carbon dioxide barrier in outdoor ponds

Borland L. K., C. J. Mulcahy, B. A. Bennie, D. D. Baumann, R. J. Haro, M. Van Appledorn, K. J. Jankowski, A. R. Cupp, and R. A. Erickson. Using Markov chains to quantitatively assess movement patterns of invasive fishes impacted by a carbon dioxide barrier in outdoor ponds. Natural Resource Modeling. 2020;e12281. https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12281 (Mentoring by KJJ and MVA who were supported through the US Army Corps of Engineers’ Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program.

Abstract

Natural resource managers use barriers to deter the movement of aquatic invasive species. Research and development of new invasive species barriers is often evaluated in pond and field scales using high‐resolution telemetry data. Telemetry data sets can be a rich source of data about fish movement and behavior but can be difficult to analyze due to the size of these data sets as well as their irregular sampling intervals. Due to the challenges, most barrier studies only use summary endpoints, such as barrier passage counts or average (e.g., mean or median) fish distance from the barrier, to describe the data. To examine more fine‐scale fish movement patterns, we developed a first‐order Markov chain. We then used this model to help understand the impacts of a barrier on fish behavior. For our study system, we used data from a previous study examining how bighead and silver carp (two invasive fish species in the United States) responded to a carbon dioxide (CO2) barrier in a pond.

Keywords

Asian carp, barrier behavior, Markov chain movement