Pool 13 drawdown: Predicting success rates and affected areas Rogala, J. T., J. H. Wlosinski, and K. J. Landwehr. 1999. Pool 13 drawdown: Predicting success rates and affected areas. U.S. Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, La Crosse, Wisconsin, April 1999. LTRMP 99-T002. 27 pp. + Appendix ABSTRACT The likelihood of 1- or 2-foot drawdowns, and the area affected by such alternative drawdowns, was estimated for Pool 13 on the Upper Mississippi River. Minimum water surface (elevation) requirements were compared to computed water surface profiles to determine a critical low flow that would allow a navigation channel 400 feet wide and 10.5 feet deep. An upper limit on flow was established based on the flow at which open river conditions would exist for a given drawdown. The range in flows that would allow for a drawdown was used to estimate success rates using historical daily discharge data. Success rates were determined for a variety of drawdown durations between two time periods, May 1 August 15 and June 15 August 15. The greatest effect of the drawdown would be near Lock and Dam 13. Higher discharges, as well as distance from the dam, lessen the drawdown amount. Areas that would be affected by these two drawdown scenarios were predicted by overlaying maps of water surfaces with depths using a geographic information system. Although the drawdown effects on most physical and biotic components of Pool 13 are unknown, some general drawdown effects likely to occur because of the changes in water surface elevation are presented. KEYWORDS Dam regulation, drawdown, Mississippi River, Upper Mississippi River, water levels