1 STATION NAME: Bad Axe River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: BX00.4M DRAINAGE AREA: 187.7 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19950101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 55 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 54 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1995 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 43. 22. 25. 28. 38. 48. 59. 160. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 50. 15. 26. 29. 39. 54. 82. 395. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.0424E+00 + 9.6682E-01 LN(FLOW) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.555 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 64.15 ( 8 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.0519E+00 + 9.6476E-01 LN(FLOW) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.545 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.3641E+00 + 9.1074E-01 LN(FLOW) 1 STATION: Bad Axe River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: BX00.4M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.22 0.34 0.23 0.15 0.13 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.03 0.08 0.03 0.02 0.02 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.19 0.31 0.20 0.13 0.11 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.19 0.29 0.20 0.13 0.11 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.19 1 STATION NAME: Bad Axe River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: BX00.4M DRAINAGE AREA: 187.7 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19950101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 58 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 58 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1995 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 44. 22. 25. 29. 38. 50. 68. 160. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 50. 15. 26. 29. 39. 54. 82. 395. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 9.1658E-01 + 1.2227E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.9721E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.4909E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.084 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 18.69 ( 8 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.017 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 9.1658E-01 + 1.2227E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.9721E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.4909E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.084 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6774E+00 + 1.0349E+00 LN(FLOW) + 9.0723E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.3474E-01 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Bad Axe River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: BX00.4M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.16 0.27 0.12 0.11 0.10 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.16 0.27 0.12 0.10 0.10 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.15 0.26 0.12 0.09 0.10 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.15 1 STATION NAME: Bad Axe River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: BX00.4M DRAINAGE AREA: 187.7 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19950101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 58 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 58 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1995 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 44. 22. 25. 29. 38. 50. 68. 160. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 50. 15. 26. 29. 39. 54. 82. 395. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.5522E+02 + 1.2583E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.4381E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.7609E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.2907E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.380 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 8.57 ( 8 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.380 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.5522E+02 + 1.2583E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.4381E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.7609E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.2907E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.380 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.5443E+02 + 9.0199E-01 LN(FLOW) + 3.6082E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.2204E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.2800E-01 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Bad Axe River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: BX00.4M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.01 1 STATION NAME: Bad Axe River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: BX00.4M DRAINAGE AREA: 187.7 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19950101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 46 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 46 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1995 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 45. 23. 26. 31. 39. 51. 68. 160. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 50. 15. 26. 29. 39. 54. 82. 395. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.3745E+01 - 6.3021E+00 LN(FLOW) + 8.8641E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.8132E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.5496E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.461 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 15.21 ( 6 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.019 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.3745E+01 - 6.3021E+00 LN(FLOW) + 8.8641E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.8132E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.5496E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.461 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.3730E+01 - 6.2736E+00 LN(FLOW) + 8.7811E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.6019E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 5.3103E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Bad Axe River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: BX00.4M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.02 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.01 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.02 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.01 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.01 1 STATION NAME: Bad Axe River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: BX00.4M DRAINAGE AREA: 187.7 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19950101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 54 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 30 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1995 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 43. 22. 25. 28. 38. 48. 59. 160. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 50. 15. 26. 29. 39. 54. 82. 395. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.0899E+03 + 2.1360E+00 LN(FLOW) + 9.5118E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.1340E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.0528E+00 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.339 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 14.22 ( 7 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.047 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.6448E+03 + 1.8813E+00 LN(FLOW) + 6.1582E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.3517E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 1.3283E+00 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.084 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.4317E+03 + 2.1940E+00 LN(FLOW) + 5.5272E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0373E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.2221E+00 DECTIME WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Bad Axe River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: BX00.4M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.00 - 0.00 1 STATION NAME: Bad Axe River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: BX00.4M DRAINAGE AREA: 187.7 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19950101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 58 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 58 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1995 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 44. 22. 25. 29. 38. 50. 68. 160. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 50. 15. 26. 29. 39. 54. 82. 395. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.8874E+00 + 4.6015E-01 LN(FLOW) - 2.0442E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.4180E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.695 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 7.44 ( 8 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.490 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.8874E+00 + 4.6015E-01 LN(FLOW) - 2.0442E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.4180E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.695 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 7.9189E+00 + 2.1135E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.9754E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 5.4634E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Bad Axe River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: BX00.4M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 4.00 4.20 5.30 3.90 2.40 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.52 0.93 0.91 0.72 0.49 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 28. 35. 43. 47. 54. 57. 58. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.90 4.20 5.20 3.80 2.40 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 28. 34. 42. 46. 53. 55. 57. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 10. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 4.10 4.70 5.90 3.00 2.10 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 26. 33. 43. 53. 57. 61. 63. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 4.6 1 STATION NAME: Bad Axe River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: BX00.4M DRAINAGE AREA: 187.7 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19950101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 51 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 51 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1995 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 43. 22. 25. 28. 38. 48. 60. 160. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 50. 15. 26. 29. 39. 54. 82. 395. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 7.0000E+00 - 1.0022E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.6549E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.075 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 37.18 ( 7 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 7.0000E+00 - 1.0022E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.6549E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.075 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.5298E+00 + 6.9598E-01 LN(FLOW) + 6.3508E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Bad Axe River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: BX00.4M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.80 1.50 0.73 0.44 0.40 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.10 0.33 0.04 0.02 0.02 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 10. 14. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 15. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.83 1.60 0.74 0.45 0.40 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 11. 18. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 7. 19. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.79 1.40 0.77 0.44 0.38 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.71 1 STATION NAME: Bad Axe River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: BX00.4M DRAINAGE AREA: 187.7 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silicon LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19950101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 53 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 53 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1995 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 43. 22. 25. 28. 38. 49. 59. 160. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 50. 15. 26. 29. 39. 54. 82. 395. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.3407E-01 + 2.4646E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.7865E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.4984E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.5149E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.037 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 14.99 ( 7 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.036 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.3407E-01 + 2.4646E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.7865E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.4984E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.5149E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.037 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.4582E-01 + 2.4611E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.8155E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 5.9738E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.3121E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Bad Axe River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: BX00.4M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.62 0.88 0.64 0.51 0.40 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.03 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.02 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.62 0.88 0.64 0.51 0.40 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.64 0.95 0.64 0.48 0.41 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.66