1 STATION NAME: Black River near Galesville, WI STATION NUMBER: 05382000 DRAINAGE AREA: 2080.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 99 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 99 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1979 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2424. 449. 536. 669. 1170. 2630. 5270. 34000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1981. 310. 490. 688. 1080. 2090. 4224. 54500. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.5247E+00 + 1.9016E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.7522E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.5846E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0583E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.115 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 24.25 ( 16 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.084 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.5247E+00 + 1.9016E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.7522E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.5846E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0583E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.115 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 7.3068E-01 + 1.3247E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.2067E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.2263E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.8942E-02 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Black River near Galesville, WI (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05382000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 14. 5. 6. 4. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 4. 8. 17. 25. 49. 109. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 14. 5. 6. 4. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 4. 8. 17. 25. 50. 116. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 15. 5. 6. 4. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 4. 8. 17. 25. 52. 151. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 7.5 1 STATION NAME: Black River near Galesville, WI STATION NUMBER: 05382000 DRAINAGE AREA: 2080.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 98 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 93 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1979 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2411. 449. 535. 669. 1165. 2540. 5277. 34000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1981. 310. 490. 688. 1080. 2090. 4224. 54500. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.9106E+01 + 9.3103E-01 LN(FLOW) + 7.0675E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.7984E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.5444E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.384 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 69.19 ( 16 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.8775E+01 + 9.2163E-01 LN(FLOW) + 7.3437E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.6451E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.5316E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.366 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.8565E+01 + 8.3145E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.6609E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.4642E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.5573E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Black River near Galesville, WI (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05382000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.90 4.50 1.40 2.90 2.60 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.25 0.53 0.15 0.41 0.29 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 19. 50. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.80 4.40 1.40 2.90 2.50 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 18. 49. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.70 4.30 1.30 2.50 2.60 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 39. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2.5 1 STATION NAME: Black River near Galesville, WI STATION NUMBER: 05382000 DRAINAGE AREA: 2080.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 89 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 74 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1979 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2377. 449. 530. 669. 1110. 2500. 5270. 34000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1981. 310. 490. 688. 1080. 2090. 4224. 54500. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.3391E+00 + 1.3967E+00 LN(FLOW) + 5.0136E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0571E+00 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.040 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 30.64 ( 14 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.006 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.7083E+00 + 1.3247E+00 LN(FLOW) + 4.5234E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.9217E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.951 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.1977E+00 + 1.3749E+00 LN(FLOW) + 5.4559E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 9.6152E-01 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Black River near Galesville, WI (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05382000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.70 1.60 0.17 0.46 0.55 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.14 0.38 0.04 0.12 0.11 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 50. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.70 1.60 0.21 0.49 0.53 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 43. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.77 1.80 0.21 0.48 0.56 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 56. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.80 1 STATION NAME: Black River near Galesville, WI STATION NUMBER: 05382000 DRAINAGE AREA: 2080.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 99 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 99 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1979 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2424. 449. 536. 669. 1170. 2630. 5270. 34000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1981. 310. 490. 688. 1080. 2090. 4224. 54500. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.6952E+00 + 1.1859E+00 LN(FLOW) + 3.2568E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.3665E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.279 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 40.97 ( 16 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.6952E+00 + 1.1859E+00 LN(FLOW) + 3.2568E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.3665E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.279 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.3633E+00 + 1.1449E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.5802E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 3.1475E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Black River near Galesville, WI (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05382000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.00 1.80 0.95 0.84 0.34 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.08 0.19 0.10 0.11 0.03 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 54. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.00 1.90 0.97 0.86 0.35 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 56. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.98 1.70 1.00 0.87 0.32 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 52. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1.0 1 STATION NAME: Black River near Galesville, WI STATION NUMBER: 05382000 DRAINAGE AREA: 2080.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (measured as Dissolved Orthophosphate) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 72 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 70 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1982 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2400. 449. 544. 709. 1135. 2423. 5259. 34000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1981. 310. 490. 688. 1080. 2090. 4224. 54500. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.1748E+00 + 1.1222E+00 LN(FLOW) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.299 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 27.18 ( 11 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.004 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.1888E+00 + 1.1247E+00 LN(FLOW) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.292 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.4282E+00 + 1.1598E+00 LN(FLOW) 1 STATION: Black River near Galesville, WI (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05382000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.35 0.62 0.29 0.34 0.16 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.04 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.01 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 13. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.36 0.64 0.29 0.35 0.17 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 14. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.38 0.67 0.30 0.36 0.17 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 16. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.35 1 STATION NAME: Black River near Galesville, WI STATION NUMBER: 05382000 DRAINAGE AREA: 2080.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 117 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 117 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 4237. 315. 529. 777. 1300. 4055. 11320. 59400. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1981. 310. 490. 688. 1080. 2090. 4224. 54500. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.3316E-01 + 1.6961E+00 LN(FLOW) - 4.2912E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 7.7266E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.777 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 28.03 ( 20 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.109 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.3316E-01 + 1.6961E+00 LN(FLOW) - 4.2912E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 7.7266E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.777 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.2464E+00 + 1.8278E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.9031E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 7.9069E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Black River near Galesville, WI (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05382000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 570. 1000. 780. 430. 61. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 79. 150. 130. 93. 10. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 16. 37. 62. 101. 141. 230. 967. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 34. 96. 326. 1046. 2329. 8092. 142080. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 670. 1200. 920. 510. 72. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 19. 43. 73. 118. 165. 270. 1159. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 40. 112. 380. 1221. 2730. 9639. 170307. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 820. 1300. 1200. 730. 74. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 18. 42. 73. 128. 190. 344. 1838. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 37. 110. 387. 1358. 3157. 12070. 270197. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1000. 1 STATION NAME: Black River near Galesville, WI STATION NUMBER: 05382000 DRAINAGE AREA: 2080.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 100 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 100 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1979 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2412. 449. 536. 695. 1165. 2600. 5250. 34000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1981. 310. 490. 688. 1080. 2090. 4224. 54500. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.4217E+01 + 1.4753E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.2944E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 9.4344E-03 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.3917E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.8161E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.036 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 17.86 ( 17 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.398 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.4217E+01 + 1.4753E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.2944E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 9.4344E-03 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.3917E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.8161E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.036 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.3418E+01 + 1.3342E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.3903E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.6621E-03 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.3021E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.8018E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Black River near Galesville, WI (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05382000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 28. 47. 21. 28. 18. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 10. 17. 32. 62. 92. 186. 575. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 29. 47. 21. 28. 18. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 10. 17. 32. 62. 92. 187. 586. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 29. 47. 22. 28. 17. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 10. 17. 31. 61. 92. 190. 638. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 28. 1 STATION NAME: Black River near Galesville, WI STATION NUMBER: 05382000 DRAINAGE AREA: 2080.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silica (The values represented here are for SiO2. Values for loads and concentrations have been converted to represent elemental Si. Si = 0.46744 * SiO2 ) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 100 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 100 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1979 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2412. 449. 536. 695. 1165. 2600. 5250. 34000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1981. 310. 490. 688. 1080. 2090. 4224. 54500. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.0149E+01 + 8.4529E-01 LN(FLOW) - 6.2720E-03 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.8964E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 7.5987E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.046 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 19.92 ( 17 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.279 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.0149E+01 + 8.4529E-01 LN(FLOW) - 6.2720E-03 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.8964E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 7.5987E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.046 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.0229E+01 + 8.3700E-01 LN(FLOW) - 7.8371E-03 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.0123E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 7.6755E-03 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Black River near Galesville, WI (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05382000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 40. 61. 27. 42. 31. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 7. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 18. 28. 45. 82. 117. 229. 572. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 40. 61. 27. 42. 31. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 7. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 17. 28. 45. 81. 117. 230. 574. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 40. 60. 26. 42. 32. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 7. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 18. 28. 45. 81. 116. 227. 551. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 38.