1 STATION NAME: Black River near Lytle's Bridge STATION NUMBER: BK14.2M DRAINAGE AREA: 2080.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 107 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 107 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2334. 500. 646. 839. 1268. 2504. 5071. 19404. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2413. 481. 694. 824. 1301. 2558. 5116. 59078. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7536E+02 + 9.9412E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.6515E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.6171E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.6836E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.115 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 39.72 ( 18 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.002 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7536E+02 + 9.9412E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.6515E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.6171E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.6836E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.115 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7543E+02 + 9.8941E-01 LN(FLOW) + 2.3666E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.8273E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.6880E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Black River near Lytle's Bridge (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: BK14.2M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 17. 10. 7. 4. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 5. 10. 21. 32. 64. 238. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 17. 10. 7. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 6. 11. 21. 33. 65. 245. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 17. 10. 8. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 6. 11. 21. 32. 63. 235. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 9.7 1 STATION NAME: Black River near Lytle's Bridge STATION NUMBER: BK14.2M DRAINAGE AREA: 2080.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 114 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 113 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2805. 500. 652. 844. 1268. 2694. 5263. 59078. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2413. 481. 694. 824. 1301. 2558. 5116. 59078. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.3775E+02 + 7.6872E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.8295E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.6982E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.1768E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.428 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 98.93 ( 19 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.3639E+02 + 7.6851E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.8326E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.7140E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.1700E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.424 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.3646E+02 + 7.6295E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.2956E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.9976E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.1698E-01 DECTIME WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Black River near Lytle's Bridge (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: BK14.2M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 4.30 7.40 3.30 3.30 3.20 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.36 0.89 0.36 0.38 0.37 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 21. 47. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 4.00 6.80 3.00 3.00 3.00 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 20. 44. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 4.00 6.40 3.00 3.20 3.00 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 19. 42. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 3.5 1 STATION NAME: Black River near Lytle's Bridge STATION NUMBER: BK14.2M DRAINAGE AREA: 2080.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 114 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 104 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2805. 500. 652. 844. 1268. 2694. 5263. 59078. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2413. 481. 694. 824. 1301. 2558. 5116. 59078. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.3722E+00 + 1.5088E+00 LN(FLOW) + 8.9918E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.8603E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.982 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 68.00 ( 19 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.2525E+00 + 1.4987E+00 LN(FLOW) + 8.3539E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.7756E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.837 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.2953E+00 + 1.2733E+00 LN(FLOW) + 7.1880E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.9436E-01 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Black River near Lytle's Bridge (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: BK14.2M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.50 4.30 0.72 0.33 0.46 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.44 1.40 0.25 0.10 0.12 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 20. 49. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.10 3.10 0.57 0.27 0.34 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 15. 38. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.79 2.00 0.41 0.26 0.34 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 18. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.77 1 STATION NAME: Black River near Lytle's Bridge STATION NUMBER: BK14.2M DRAINAGE AREA: 2080.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 97 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 97 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2460. 500. 706. 907. 1420. 2764. 5637. 19404. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2413. 481. 694. 824. 1301. 2558. 5116. 59078. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.0114E+02 + 2.9053E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1087E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.1984E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.7021E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 5.4855E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.154 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 22.65 ( 16 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.123 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.0114E+02 + 2.9053E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1087E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.1984E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.7021E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 5.4855E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.154 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.0153E+02 + 2.8125E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.0979E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 9.1382E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.1248E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 5.4752E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Black River near Lytle's Bridge (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: BK14.2M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.00 1.70 1.30 0.80 0.26 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.07 0.14 0.13 0.06 0.02 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 16. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.10 1.70 1.30 0.81 0.26 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 19. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.00 1.60 1.30 0.76 0.26 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 15. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1.1 1 STATION NAME: Black River near Lytle's Bridge STATION NUMBER: BK14.2M DRAINAGE AREA: 2080.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 110 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 108 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2833. 500. 650. 844. 1268. 2534. 5519. 59078. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2413. 481. 694. 824. 1301. 2558. 5116. 59078. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.4110E+00 + 1.5231E+00 LN(FLOW) - 4.0461E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1875E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.522 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 35.48 ( 19 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.012 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.3942E+00 + 1.5212E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.9920E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1601E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.513 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.8331E+00 + 1.4583E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.3820E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1727E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Black River near Lytle's Bridge (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: BK14.2M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.53 0.77 0.76 0.46 0.10 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.07 0.12 0.13 0.07 0.01 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 42. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.51 0.74 0.73 0.43 0.09 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 42. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.48 0.78 0.64 0.36 0.10 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 34. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.47 1 STATION NAME: Black River near Lytle's Bridge STATION NUMBER: BK14.2M DRAINAGE AREA: 2080.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 110 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 110 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2314. 500. 650. 830. 1258. 2604. 4915. 19404. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2413. 481. 694. 824. 1301. 2558. 5116. 59078. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.3965E+02 + 4.3604E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.1238E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.4911E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 8.3529E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 7.4509E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.342 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 23.37 ( 19 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.222 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.3965E+02 + 4.3604E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.1238E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.4911E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 8.3529E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 7.4509E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.342 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.3976E+02 + 4.3269E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.0980E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.3588E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 8.9890E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 7.4538E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Black River near Lytle's Bridge (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: BK14.2M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 110. 150. 180. 69. 14. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 9. 17. 19. 8. 2. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 7. 14. 24. 30. 33. 40. 42. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 19. 64. 142. 261. 359. 664. 880. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 110. 160. 180. 70. 15. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 7. 14. 24. 30. 33. 41. 42. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 19. 65. 144. 272. 371. 690. 968. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 110. 150. 200. 76. 13. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 7. 14. 25. 32. 36. 45. 46. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 18. 68. 146. 270. 381. 746. 1054. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 120. 1 STATION NAME: Black River near Lytle's Bridge STATION NUMBER: BK14.2M DRAINAGE AREA: 2080.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 106 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 106 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2904. 500. 652. 886. 1285. 2694. 5664. 59078. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2413. 481. 694. 824. 1301. 2558. 5116. 59078. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.8469E+00 + 9.5644E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.3327E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.4597E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.132 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 62.64 ( 18 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.8469E+00 + 9.5644E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.3327E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.4597E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.132 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.7358E+00 + 9.6731E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.6372E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.3599E-01 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Black River near Lytle's Bridge (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: BK14.2M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 42. 77. 40. 29. 19. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 2. 6. 3. 2. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 17. 23. 45. 92. 144. 261. 804. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 44. 79. 41. 30. 20. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 17. 24. 46. 95. 149. 271. 838. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 43. 74. 42. 33. 19. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 9. 17. 24. 45. 92. 145. 266. 864. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 42. 1 STATION NAME: Black River near Lytle's Bridge STATION NUMBER: BK14.2M DRAINAGE AREA: 2080.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silicon LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 108 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 108 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2871. 500. 653. 859. 1285. 2593. 5610. 59078. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2413. 481. 694. 824. 1301. 2558. 5116. 59078. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.9409E+02 + 7.4534E-01 LN(FLOW) - 4.8484E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.6700E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 9.4778E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.086 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 30.30 ( 18 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.035 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.9409E+02 + 7.4534E-01 LN(FLOW) - 4.8484E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.6700E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 9.4778E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.086 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.9431E+02 + 7.9406E-01 LN(FLOW) - 8.7432E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.4862E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 9.5050E-02 DECTIME WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Black River near Lytle's Bridge (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: BK14.2M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 22. 32. 20. 21. 15. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 12. 17. 26. 41. 57. 93. 245. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 22. 32. 20. 21. 15. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 12. 16. 25. 41. 56. 93. 245. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 23. 33. 21. 22. 14. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 11. 16. 26. 42. 60. 100. 294. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 20.