1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Winona, MN STATION NUMBER: 05378500 DRAINAGE AREA: 59200.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 83 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 83 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1986 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 33966. 5200. 10420. 16100. 24100. 43400. 62600. 165000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 34000. 2350. 12000. 16900. 26200. 43400. 67300. 168000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.4161E+01 + 3.8072E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1571E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.0200E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.9984E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.174 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 23.61 ( 13 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.035 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.4161E+01 + 3.8072E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1571E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.0200E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.9984E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.174 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.3979E+01 + 3.8000E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1668E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.9902E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.6905E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Winona, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05378500 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 240. 430. 210. 190. 130. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 15. 37. 17. 18. 10. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 87. 162. 306. 550. 750. 1119. 1686. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 240. 430. 210. 190. 130. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 86. 160. 303. 544. 745. 1119. 1701. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 230. 390. 220. 200. 130. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 87. 161. 304. 514. 688. 1033. 1492. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 240. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Winona, MN STATION NUMBER: 05378500 DRAINAGE AREA: 59200.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 105 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 97 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1986 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 33770. 5200. 11980. 16700. 24300. 43425. 62580. 165000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 34000. 2350. 12000. 16900. 26200. 43400. 67300. 168000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.5182E+01 + 1.0825E+01 LN(FLOW) - 4.1777E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 8.5710E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.7415E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.076 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 49.01 ( 18 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.8816E+01 + 9.6603E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.6479E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 8.1592E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.2919E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.008 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.7992E+01 + 9.7330E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.7917E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.5813E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.9978E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Winona, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05378500 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 200. 380. 110. 180. 130. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 32. 80. 22. 41. 23. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 39. 106. 264. 528. 751. 1115. 1994. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 190. 350. 110. 170. 110. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 38. 100. 241. 490. 702. 1072. 1987. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 160. 310. 110. 130. 93. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 40. 98. 209. 417. 561. 810. 1298. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 130. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Winona, MN STATION NUMBER: 05378500 DRAINAGE AREA: 59200.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 35 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 33 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1979 TO 1986 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 39677. 12100. 13980. 22000. 28500. 54200. 68720. 160000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 34000. 2350. 12000. 16900. 26200. 43400. 67300. 168000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.5037E-01 + 8.8868E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.8131E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1340E+00 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.813 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 6.24 ( 4 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.182 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.3980E-01 + 9.1104E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.8233E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1070E+00 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.779 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.4901E+00 + 1.1688E+00 LN(FLOW) + 6.9221E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1556E+00 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Winona, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05378500 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 13. 19. 4. 9. 20. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 2. 5. 1. 2. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 10. 19. 27. 32. 44. 83. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 13. 20. 4. 9. 19. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 10. 19. 26. 32. 45. 89. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 14. 27. 4. 8. 18. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 4. 10. 19. 31. 42. 70. 158. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 14. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Winona, MN STATION NUMBER: 05378500 DRAINAGE AREA: 59200.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 106 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 106 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1986 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 33551. 5200. 11590. 16650. 24300. 43413. 62510. 165000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 34000. 2350. 12000. 16900. 26200. 43400. 67300. 168000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.7826E+01 + 1.0187E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.4939E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.8105E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.9455E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.093 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 18.43 ( 18 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.428 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.7826E+01 + 1.0187E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.4939E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.8105E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.9455E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.093 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.7734E+01 + 1.0151E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.3020E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.4237E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.9382E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Winona, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05378500 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12. 18. 14. 10. 6. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 5. 9. 15. 24. 31. 45. 79. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12. 18. 14. 10. 6. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 5. 9. 15. 24. 31. 45. 78. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12. 16. 13. 11. 6. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 5. 9. 15. 23. 29. 42. 72. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 14. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Winona, MN STATION NUMBER: 05378500 DRAINAGE AREA: 59200.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (measured as Dissolved Orthophosphate) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 22 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 22 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1981 TO 1986 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 47450. 18700. 22240. 24250. 39950. 56375. 95990. 160000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 34000. 2350. 12000. 16900. 26200. 43400. 67300. 168000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.8945E+00 + 6.3011E-01 LN(FLOW) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.224 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 6.72 ( 1 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.010 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.8945E+00 + 6.3011E-01 LN(FLOW) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.224 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.3720E+00 + 7.9136E-01 LN(FLOW) WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Winona, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05378500 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 6.80 8.90 7.00 6.30 4.90 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.72 1.00 0.73 0.72 0.81 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 19. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 6.70 8.80 6.90 6.20 4.90 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 19. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 6.70 9.30 6.90 6.00 4.40 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 19. 24. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 6.0 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Winona, MN STATION NUMBER: 05378500 DRAINAGE AREA: 59200.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 45 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 45 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 52123. 7000. 14420. 23850. 40300. 70200. 119200. 159000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 34000. 2350. 12000. 16900. 26200. 43400. 67300. 168000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7616E+01 - 1.8603E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.5224E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 7.2471E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.2193E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.180 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 4.72 ( 6 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.580 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7616E+01 - 1.8603E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.5224E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 7.2471E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.2193E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.180 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7115E+01 - 1.9646E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.6641E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 3.2237E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 5.1115E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Winona, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05378500 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2100. 3400. 3100. 1300. 430. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 150. 330. 290. 170. 57. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 9. 16. 24. 31. 35. 44. 69. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 54. 496. 980. 2541. 5280. 7133. 13239. 31109. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2100. 3400. 3100. 1300. 430. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 9. 16. 24. 31. 35. 43. 70. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 71. 498. 984. 2542. 5260. 7096. 13325. 31714. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2200. 3200. 3300. 1700. 430. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 9. 17. 24. 32. 37. 50. 89. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 58. 475. 1020. 2595. 5325. 7421. 15291. 40257. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2800. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Winona, MN STATION NUMBER: 05378500 DRAINAGE AREA: 59200.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 106 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 106 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1986 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 33551. 5200. 11590. 16650. 24300. 43413. 62510. 165000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 34000. 2350. 12000. 16900. 26200. 43400. 67300. 168000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.4393E+01 + 7.6760E-01 LN(FLOW) + 9.0686E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.4276E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 3.5837E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.051 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 12.62 ( 18 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.814 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.4393E+01 + 7.6760E-01 LN(FLOW) + 9.0686E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.4276E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 3.5837E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.051 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.4376E+01 + 7.4011E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0267E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.3045E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 3.5966E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Winona, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05378500 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1300. 1900. 1300. 1100. 910. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 69. 110. 81. 62. 54. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 148. 721. 1063. 1637. 2473. 2983. 3969. 5760. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1300. 1900. 1300. 1100. 910. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 149. 722. 1065. 1640. 2477. 2988. 3986. 5786. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1300. 1900. 1300. 1100. 900. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 154. 724. 1067. 1622. 2460. 2951. 3909. 5691. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1000. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Winona, MN STATION NUMBER: 05378500 DRAINAGE AREA: 59200.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silica (The values represented here are for SiO2. Values for loads and concentrations have been converted to represent elemental Si. Si = 0.46744 * SiO2 ) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 106 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 105 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1986 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 33551. 5200. 11590. 16650. 24300. 43413. 62510. 165000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 34000. 2350. 12000. 16900. 26200. 43400. 67300. 168000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.2566E+00 + 1.4956E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.4021E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.0941E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.536 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 49.76 ( 18 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.2125E+00 + 1.4914E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.3724E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.0605E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.531 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.5669E+00 + 1.1417E+00 LN(FLOW) - 8.2618E-03 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.9551E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Winona, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05378500 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1200. 1600. 880. 1400. 780. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 120. 230. 110. 200. 95. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 8. 11. 14. 18. 20. 25. 30. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 35. 432. 790. 1517. 2482. 3422. 5758. 10802. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1100. 1500. 820. 1300. 730. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 8. 10. 13. 17. 19. 24. 28. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 33. 401. 733. 1405. 2303. 3178. 5364. 10175. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 920. 1400. 770. 860. 640. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 58. 447. 709. 1161. 1827. 2376. 3580. 5454. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 920.