1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 5 STATION NUMBER: M738.2F DRAINAGE AREA: 58845.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980728 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 118 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 118 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 43900. 14700. 18880. 26625. 35950. 58525. 74770. 131300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 44597. 7500. 18200. 25900. 36100. 57400. 79900. 189100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.3509E-01 + 1.2170E+00 LN(FLOW) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.226 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 46.41 ( 20 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.3509E-01 + 1.2170E+00 LN(FLOW) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.226 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.0824E-01 + 1.2828E+00 LN(FLOW) 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 5 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M738.2F LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 370. 590. 430. 270. 160. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 21. 44. 26. 12. 10. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 40. 184. 275. 484. 722. 921. 1607. 2046. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 370. 580. 420. 270. 160. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 40. 181. 270. 476. 711. 908. 1590. 2029. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 370. 610. 440. 270. 160. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 36. 176. 269. 488. 746. 965. 1741. 2251. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 370. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 5 STATION NUMBER: M738.2F DRAINAGE AREA: 58845.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980728 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 120 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 120 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 43924. 14700. 18720. 26275. 35500. 58575. 76130. 131300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 44597. 7500. 18200. 25900. 36100. 57400. 79900. 189100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6797E+02 + 1.3485E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.5144E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.7727E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.4870E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.174 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 24.25 ( 21 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.281 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6797E+02 + 1.3485E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.5144E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.7727E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.4870E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.174 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7078E+02 + 1.1877E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.1140E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.3687E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 8.5413E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 5 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M738.2F LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 270. 480. 270. 170. 130. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 14. 36. 18. 12. 9. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 27. 118. 176. 326. 594. 778. 1306. 1695. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 270. 480. 270. 170. 130. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 27. 117. 175. 324. 590. 776. 1302. 1699. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 250. 420. 280. 170. 120. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 31. 120. 176. 311. 537. 673. 1111. 1354. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 260. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 5 STATION NUMBER: M738.2F DRAINAGE AREA: 58845.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980728 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 121 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 112 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 43877. 14700. 18740. 26450. 35800. 58550. 75960. 131300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 44597. 7500. 18200. 25900. 36100. 57400. 79900. 189100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.7655E+02 + 1.4449E+00 LN(FLOW) + 8.2800E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.5948E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.3594E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.761 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 68.39 ( 21 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.4293E+02 + 1.4316E+00 LN(FLOW) + 7.9213E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.8234E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.1918E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.648 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.4237E+02 + 1.4718E+00 LN(FLOW) + 5.6842E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.3335E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.1888E-01 DECTIME WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 5 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M738.2F LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 24. 61. 14. 5. 9. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 6. 17. 3. 1. 2. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 5. 10. 25. 53. 87. 237. 367. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 18. 46. 11. 4. 7. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 8. 19. 40. 63. 179. 290. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 16. 37. 9. 6. 8. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 9. 16. 32. 51. 146. 242. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 11. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 5 STATION NUMBER: M738.2F DRAINAGE AREA: 58845.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980728 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 112 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 112 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 44487. 14700. 19110. 27100. 36700. 58575. 75670. 131300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 44597. 7500. 18200. 25900. 36100. 57400. 79900. 189100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.4488E+00 + 1.1891E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.5302E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 9.1053E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.196 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 14.36 ( 19 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.763 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.4488E+00 + 1.1891E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.5302E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 9.1053E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.196 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.8448E+00 + 1.1335E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6925E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.8284E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 5 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M738.2F LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 17. 24. 21. 14. 7. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 8. 13. 22. 31. 38. 70. 84. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 17. 23. 21. 14. 7. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 8. 13. 22. 31. 38. 70. 84. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 17. 23. 23. 14. 6. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 8. 13. 22. 31. 36. 67. 84. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 17. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 5 STATION NUMBER: M738.2F DRAINAGE AREA: 58845.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980728 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 121 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 113 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 43877. 14700. 18740. 26450. 35800. 58550. 75960. 131300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 44597. 7500. 18200. 25900. 36100. 57400. 79900. 189100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.9134E+02 + 1.4983E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.0955E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.3368E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.9987E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.432 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 46.28 ( 21 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.6275E+02 + 1.4766E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.8166E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.9587E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.8541E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.353 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.6304E+02 + 1.4368E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.0315E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.0946E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 2.8527E-01 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 5 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M738.2F LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 8. 10. 12. 4. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 5. 10. 19. 25. 49. 64. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 7.30 7.20 8.80 9.90 3.60 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 21. 43. 57. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 8. 12. 9. 3. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 5. 9. 18. 23. 58. 76. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 6.7 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 5 STATION NUMBER: M738.2F DRAINAGE AREA: 58845.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980728 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 118 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 118 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 43393. 14700. 18630. 26050. 35500. 57450. 74410. 131300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 44597. 7500. 18200. 25900. 36100. 57400. 79900. 189100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7610E+01 - 2.3402E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.9496E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.8641E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.6807E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.172 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 27.21 ( 20 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.130 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7610E+01 - 2.3402E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.9496E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.8641E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.6807E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.172 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7592E+01 - 2.3630E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.9741E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 3.2264E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 5.8159E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 5 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M738.2F LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2900. 4200. 5200. 1400. 300. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 230. 420. 500. 95. 20. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 6. 14. 24. 32. 38. 79. 105. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 62. 427. 1430. 3405. 6552. 7995. 27639. 47627. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2900. 4300. 5400. 1400. 300. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 6. 14. 24. 32. 38. 81. 110. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 66. 433. 1452. 3452. 6646. 8113. 28751. 49892. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2800. 4200. 5100. 1500. 320. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 6. 14. 23. 31. 37. 79. 106. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 70. 458. 1413. 3337. 6461. 7933. 28173. 48257. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2500. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 5 STATION NUMBER: M738.2F DRAINAGE AREA: 58845.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980728 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 121 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 121 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 43877. 14700. 18740. 26450. 35800. 58550. 75960. 131300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 44597. 7500. 18200. 25900. 36100. 57400. 79900. 189100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.8477E+01 - 3.4893E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.0929E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 5.8929E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1004E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.090 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 48.29 ( 21 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.8477E+01 - 3.4893E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.0929E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 5.8929E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1004E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.090 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.8665E+01 - 3.4302E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.0212E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 4.6370E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.5909E-02 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 5 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M738.2F LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2000. 3200. 2100. 1500. 1200. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 74. 190. 100. 73. 59. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 14. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 24. 33. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 668. 1206. 1520. 2432. 3616. 4721. 8286. 12559. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2100. 3200. 2100. 1500. 1200. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 14. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 24. 35. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 699. 1223. 1541. 2465. 3669. 4793. 8503. 13011. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2000. 3000. 2100. 1500. 1300. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 14. 15. 17. 19. 22. 23. 25. 38. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 769. 1252. 1560. 2391. 3470. 4431. 7691. 10995. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2200. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 5 STATION NUMBER: M738.2F DRAINAGE AREA: 58845.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silicon LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980728 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 121 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 121 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 43877. 14700. 18740. 26450. 35800. 58550. 75960. 131300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 44597. 7500. 18200. 25900. 36100. 57400. 79900. 189100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.5398E+00 + 1.0761E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.8061E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1297E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.262 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 79.35 ( 21 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.5398E+00 + 1.0761E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.8061E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1297E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.262 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.7644E+00 + 1.0640E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.8151E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.9798E-02 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 5 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M738.2F LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 700. 920. 790. 680. 390. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 39. 83. 59. 57. 31. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 124. 422. 588. 906. 1204. 1414. 2349. 2784. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 660. 880. 750. 640. 370. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 119. 401. 559. 862. 1147. 1347. 2246. 2678. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 660. 870. 760. 640. 360. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 119. 399. 557. 864. 1144. 1342. 2253. 2631. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 680.