1 STATION NAME: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M DRAINAGE AREA: 1414.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 101 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 101 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 771. 192. 348. 458. 595. 865. 1550. 3144. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 769. 192. 335. 420. 567. 811. 1416. 11069. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.0747E-01 + 1.4299E+00 LN(FLOW) - 7.7943E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.8551E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.094 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 17.27 ( 17 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.436 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.0747E-01 + 1.4299E+00 LN(FLOW) - 7.7943E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.8551E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.094 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 9.5078E-01 + 1.3513E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.5665E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0043E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12. 21. 13. 7. 5. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 15. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 5. 7. 11. 22. 34. 108. 434. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12. 21. 13. 7. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 15. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 5. 7. 11. 22. 34. 108. 440. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 20. 13. 7. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 9. 12. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 5. 7. 10. 22. 33. 97. 363. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 11. 1 STATION NAME: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M DRAINAGE AREA: 1414.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 102 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 102 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 784. 192. 348. 450. 596. 871. 1575. 3144. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 769. 192. 335. 420. 567. 811. 1416. 11069. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.0207E+00 + 1.3263E+00 LN(FLOW) + 5.3177E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.5237E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.090 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 19.19 ( 17 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.318 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.0207E+00 + 1.3263E+00 LN(FLOW) + 5.3177E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.5237E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.090 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.8588E-01 + 1.4480E+00 LN(FLOW) + 8.6929E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.5970E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 20. 11. 6. 5. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 12. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 5. 6. 10. 21. 31. 88. 348. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 20. 11. 6. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 12. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 5. 6. 10. 21. 31. 88. 352. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12. 24. 11. 6. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 11. 18. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 6. 10. 22. 35. 104. 525. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 10. 1 STATION NAME: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M DRAINAGE AREA: 1414.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 103 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 77 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 781. 192. 349. 454. 595. 869. 1572. 3144. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 769. 192. 335. 420. 567. 811. 1416. 11069. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.3568E+03 + 2.3936E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.1107E+00 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.3001E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 6.7399E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 3.655 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 73.45 ( 17 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.1035E+03 + 2.2679E+00 LN(FLOW) + 8.7497E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.5128E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 5.4757E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 2.985 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.1024E+03 + 2.5246E+00 LN(FLOW) + 9.1219E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.9741E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 5.4628E-01 DECTIME WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.76 2.60 0.17 0.03 0.10 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.46 1.70 0.07 0.01 0.04 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 16. 87. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.43 1.40 0.11 0.02 0.06 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 8. 48. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.66 2.30 0.13 0.02 0.06 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 12. 86. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.13 1 STATION NAME: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M DRAINAGE AREA: 1414.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 95 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 95 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 798. 192. 354. 474. 613. 876. 1565. 3144. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 769. 192. 335. 420. 567. 811. 1416. 11069. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.2324E+02 + 1.8966E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.0863E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.522 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 18.91 ( 16 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.273 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.2324E+02 + 1.8966E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.0863E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.522 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.2274E+02 + 1.9949E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.0806E-01 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.46 1.00 0.51 0.15 0.09 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.07 0.21 0.07 0.01 0.01 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 34. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.46 1.00 0.50 0.15 0.09 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 36. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.51 1.20 0.55 0.15 0.09 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 47. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.47 1 STATION NAME: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M DRAINAGE AREA: 1414.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 103 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 77 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 781. 192. 349. 454. 595. 869. 1572. 3144. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 769. 192. 335. 420. 567. 811. 1416. 11069. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1996E+03 + 1.5933E+01 LN(FLOW) - 9.9344E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.5820E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.9040E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 6.3016E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 2.358 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 45.76 ( 17 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 9.0367E+02 + 1.2018E+01 LN(FLOW) - 7.1632E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 8.2413E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.1972E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 4.7489E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.987 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 9.0333E+02 + 1.2081E+01 LN(FLOW) - 6.9812E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.6245E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.0110E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 4.7533E-01 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.16 0.34 0.14 0.09 0.07 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.05 0.13 0.05 0.03 0.03 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.14 0.28 0.13 0.07 0.05 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.19 0.44 0.16 0.07 0.06 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.09 1 STATION NAME: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M DRAINAGE AREA: 1414.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 100 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 100 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 750. 192. 347. 443. 588. 861. 1529. 3144. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 769. 192. 335. 420. 567. 811. 1416. 11069. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.9152E+01 - 4.3981E+00 LN(FLOW) + 4.9378E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 8.7902E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.1896E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.515 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 29.03 ( 17 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.034 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.9152E+01 - 4.3981E+00 LN(FLOW) + 4.9378E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 8.7902E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.1896E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.515 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.8966E+01 - 4.4600E+00 LN(FLOW) + 5.0765E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.0282E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.7431E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 810. 2300. 730. 49. 16. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 510. 1600. 280. 7. 2. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 16. 35. 57. 132. 230. 1071. 11569. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 19. 53. 113. 498. 1139. 12506. 345377. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1400. 4200. 870. 51. 17. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 11. 17. 37. 59. 140. 243. 1293. 27742. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 20. 56. 119. 525. 1221. 15218. 828196. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1900. 6300. 1000. 54. 19. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 12. 18. 36. 56. 146. 260. 1742. 44275. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 21. 55. 117. 554. 1355. 19069. 1321738. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 270. 1 STATION NAME: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M DRAINAGE AREA: 1414.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 103 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 102 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 781. 192. 349. 454. 595. 869. 1572. 3144. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 769. 192. 335. 420. 567. 811. 1416. 11069. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.9460E+02 + 9.3001E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0006E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.712 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 177.33 ( 17 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.9249E+02 + 9.2886E-01 LN(FLOW) + 9.9011E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.705 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.4864E+01 + 9.4020E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.5086E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 52. 76. 60. 38. 29. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 6. 11. 7. 4. 4. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 16. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 34. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 14. 31. 41. 57. 88. 117. 229. 481. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 43. 63. 49. 31. 24. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 14. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 12. 25. 33. 47. 72. 97. 194. 426. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 43. 64. 50. 31. 24. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 25. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 12. 25. 33. 47. 77. 102. 203. 495. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 42. 1 STATION NAME: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M DRAINAGE AREA: 1414.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silicon LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19970930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 103 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 103 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1997 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 781. 192. 349. 454. 595. 869. 1572. 3144. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 769. 192. 335. 420. 567. 811. 1416. 11069. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 7.8098E+01 + 1.1031E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1995E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.3438E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.7821E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.090 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 38.22 ( 17 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.002 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 7.8098E+01 + 1.1031E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1995E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.3438E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.7821E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.090 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 7.8019E+01 + 1.0558E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.8297E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1388E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.7590E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Zumbro River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: ZM00.1M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 16. 12. 9. 6. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 6. 8. 11. 20. 28. 68. 199. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 16. 12. 9. 6. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 6. 8. 11. 20. 28. 68. 200. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 17. 12. 8. 6. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 6. 8. 11. 20. 28. 65. 190. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 11.