1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #4 STATION NUMBER: M752.8y and M752.8Z DRAINAGE AREA: 57100.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980714 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 115 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 115 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 42149. 14600. 19060. 24400. 33900. 56900. 73240. 136700. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 42306. 6200. 17800. 24000. 33600. 54850. 74580. 200000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.2437E+02 + 1.1311E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.1738E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.084 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 12.13 ( 20 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.911 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.2437E+02 + 1.1311E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.1738E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.084 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.2467E+02 + 1.0990E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.1714E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #4 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M752.8y and M752.8Z LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 290. 450. 340. 220. 140. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 21. 13. 6. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 34. 143. 213. 372. 579. 707. 1262. 1525. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 290. 450. 340. 220. 140. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 34. 143. 213. 372. 578. 707. 1266. 1528. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 290. 440. 340. 220. 140. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 36. 145. 213. 367. 564. 688. 1206. 1455. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 290. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #4 STATION NUMBER: M752.8y and M752.8Z DRAINAGE AREA: 57100.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980714 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 119 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 119 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 41692. 14600. 19000. 24400. 33200. 54900. 73200. 136700. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 42306. 6200. 17800. 24000. 33600. 54850. 74580. 200000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.9950E+02 + 1.0160E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.1640E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.8057E-03 COS(DECTIME) - 9.8972E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.274 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 32.31 ( 20 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.040 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.9950E+02 + 1.0160E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.1640E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.8057E-03 COS(DECTIME) - 9.8972E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.274 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.0021E+02 + 1.0794E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.4574E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.0041E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 9.9651E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #4 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M752.8y and M752.8Z LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 220. 380. 240. 140. 110. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 14. 35. 19. 12. 10. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 30. 117. 153. 263. 477. 584. 885. 1058. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 240. 410. 260. 150. 120. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 33. 126. 166. 283. 515. 631. 960. 1153. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 240. 400. 260. 160. 120. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 31. 124. 169. 291. 510. 630. 1019. 1225. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 220. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #4 STATION NUMBER: M752.8y and M752.8Z DRAINAGE AREA: 57100.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980714 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 119 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 112 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 41692. 14600. 19000. 24400. 33200. 54900. 73200. 136700. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 42306. 6200. 17800. 24000. 33600. 54850. 74580. 200000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.4092E+02 + 1.3435E+00 LN(FLOW) + 7.5462E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.3736E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.1853E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.937 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 37.21 ( 20 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.011 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.0403E+02 + 1.3225E+00 LN(FLOW) + 7.1047E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.4650E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.0018E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.915 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.9490E+02 + 1.3448E+00 LN(FLOW) + 7.3193E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.2619E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 1.9555E-01 DECTIME WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #4 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M752.8y and M752.8Z LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 16. 39. 10. 5. 7. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 3. 8. 2. 1. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 7. 18. 35. 49. 132. 233. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 15. 35. 9. 5. 7. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 7. 16. 32. 44. 117. 211. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 15. 37. 10. 4. 6. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 7. 17. 34. 46. 123. 226. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 11. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #4 STATION NUMBER: M752.8y and M752.8Z DRAINAGE AREA: 57100.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980714 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 109 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 109 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 43120. 14600. 19100. 25600. 34100. 58800. 73300. 136700. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 42306. 6200. 17800. 24000. 33600. 54850. 74580. 200000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.3651E-01 + 1.0347E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.9289E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.0588E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.172 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 26.02 ( 18 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.099 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.3651E-01 + 1.0347E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.9289E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.0588E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.172 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.8998E-01 + 1.0008E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.3357E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.0998E-01 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #4 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M752.8y and M752.8Z LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 14. 19. 19. 13. 6. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 8. 12. 19. 25. 30. 54. 65. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 14. 19. 19. 13. 6. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 8. 12. 19. 25. 30. 54. 64. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 15. 18. 20. 13. 6. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 7. 12. 20. 26. 30. 54. 67. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 15. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #4 STATION NUMBER: M752.8y and M752.8Z DRAINAGE AREA: 57100.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980714 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 119 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 108 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 41692. 14600. 19000. 24400. 33200. 54900. 73200. 136700. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 42306. 6200. 17800. 24000. 33600. 54850. 74580. 200000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.1312E+02 + 1.3027E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.8489E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.6358E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.0967E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.243 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 60.88 ( 20 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.6233E+02 + 1.2902E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.5202E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.4712E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.8413E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.150 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.5989E+02 + 1.2170E+00 LN(FLOW) - 4.5686E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.1587E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 2.8248E-01 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #4 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M752.8y and M752.8Z LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 8. 11. 11. 4. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 5. 10. 18. 24. 47. 61. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 7.30 7.00 9.40 9.50 3.50 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 21. 41. 54. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 7. 8. 11. 8. 3. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 3. 5. 9. 16. 20. 47. 61. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 6.6 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #4 STATION NUMBER: M752.8y and M752.8Z DRAINAGE AREA: 57100.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980714 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 117 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 117 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 41489. 14600. 18860. 24350. 32900. 54650. 72100. 136700. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 42306. 6200. 17800. 24000. 33600. 54850. 74580. 200000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 8.3345E+01 + 1.5795E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.1805E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.0590E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 4.2864E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.163 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 17.30 ( 20 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.633 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 8.3345E+01 + 1.5795E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.1805E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.0590E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 4.2864E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.163 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 8.2756E+01 + 1.6127E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.0121E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 5.4545E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 4.2710E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #4 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M752.8y and M752.8Z LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1700. 2300. 3200. 1100. 250. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 98. 180. 210. 73. 16. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 24. 41. 46. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 37. 347. 984. 2328. 3871. 4864. 13865. 20538. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1700. 2300. 3200. 1100. 250. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 24. 41. 46. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 37. 346. 982. 2322. 3862. 4863. 13858. 20565. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1700. 2400. 3100. 1100. 260. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 5. 11. 16. 20. 23. 41. 46. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 37. 355. 979. 2282. 3829. 4847. 13627. 20496. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1600. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #4 STATION NUMBER: M752.8y and M752.8Z DRAINAGE AREA: 57100.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980714 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 119 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 119 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 41692. 14600. 19000. 24400. 33200. 54900. 73200. 136700. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 42306. 6200. 17800. 24000. 33600. 54850. 74580. 200000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.4773E+00 + 3.2845E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1870E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.1288E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0863E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.046 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 13.91 ( 20 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.835 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.4773E+00 + 3.2845E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1870E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.1288E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0863E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.046 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.5094E+00 + 3.2945E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1941E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.2191E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0398E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #4 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M752.8y and M752.8Z LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1600. 2300. 1600. 1300. 1100. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 37. 87. 51. 45. 39. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 14. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 276. 1101. 1412. 1997. 2681. 3053. 3807. 4586. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1600. 2300. 1600. 1300. 1100. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 14. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 283. 1101. 1413. 1998. 2682. 3058. 3823. 4650. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1600. 2400. 1600. 1300. 1100. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 14. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 283. 1098. 1410. 1998. 2698. 3070. 3832. 4646. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1600. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #4 STATION NUMBER: M752.8y and M752.8Z DRAINAGE AREA: 57100.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silicon LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980714 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 119 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 118 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 41692. 14600. 19000. 24400. 33200. 54900. 73200. 136700. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 42306. 6200. 17800. 24000. 33600. 54850. 74580. 200000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.2942E+02 + 1.0202E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.9626E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.4238E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 6.3252E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.100 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 39.47 ( 20 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.006 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.2886E+02 + 1.0173E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.9546E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.4002E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 6.2954E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.099 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.2830E+02 + 9.6449E-01 LN(FLOW) - 1.4191E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0223E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 6.2369E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #4 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M752.8y and M752.8Z LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 640. 810. 720. 650. 370. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 22. 45. 34. 33. 19. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 119. 368. 544. 802. 1107. 1304. 2175. 2638. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 640. 810. 720. 650. 370. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 120. 368. 544. 802. 1107. 1303. 2176. 2639. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 640. 830. 720. 610. 370. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 125. 371. 544. 802. 1093. 1274. 2099. 2532. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 640.