1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19910101 TO 19980714 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 148 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 148 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1991 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26954. 8200. 10390. 14925. 22850. 34500. 47600. 143900. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26456. 4901. 10030. 14100. 21200. 34401. 47170. 159200. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.9481E+02 + 3.9363E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.3542E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.0414E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.086 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 35.02 ( 26 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.111 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.9481E+02 + 3.9363E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.3542E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.0414E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.086 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.0190E+02 + 4.6946E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.7316E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.0960E-01 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 260. 390. 320. 190. 110. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 16. 11. 5. 4. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 23. 106. 192. 335. 545. 652. 1010. 1327. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 260. 390. 320. 190. 110. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 23. 106. 193. 335. 545. 653. 1028. 1343. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 260. 390. 320. 190. 110. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 21. 106. 195. 339. 546. 653. 914. 1228. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 250. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19910101 TO 19980714 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 155 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 155 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1991 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26678. 8200. 10260. 14800. 22300. 34600. 47000. 143900. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26456. 4901. 10030. 14100. 21200. 34401. 47170. 159200. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.1161E+02 + 4.6543E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.7010E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.3916E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.5377E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 1.1462E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.174 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 26.80 ( 28 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.529 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.1161E+02 + 4.6543E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.7010E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.3916E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.5377E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 1.1462E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.174 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.1198E+02 + 4.6357E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6381E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.6701E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0685E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.1501E-01 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 180. 300. 210. 120. 82. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 20. 12. 7. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 16. 75. 131. 234. 400. 488. 673. 815. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 180. 300. 210. 120. 82. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 16. 75. 130. 233. 397. 485. 674. 829. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 190. 340. 210. 120. 80. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 14. 72. 130. 244. 438. 539. 785. 1001. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 170. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19910101 TO 19980714 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 155 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 149 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1991 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26678. 8200. 10260. 14800. 22300. 34600. 47000. 143900. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26456. 4901. 10030. 14100. 21200. 34401. 47170. 159200. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.9734E+00 + 7.1693E-01 LN(FLOW) + 6.6374E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.1056E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.103 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 81.57 ( 28 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7425E+00 + 7.4138E-01 LN(FLOW) + 6.5044E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.1479E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.073 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.8304E+00 + 7.5081E-01 LN(FLOW) + 5.2154E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.7671E-01 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 19. 6. 5. 9. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 3. 1. 1. 2. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 5. 8. 12. 21. 25. 34. 56. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 9. 16. 5. 4. 8. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 7. 10. 18. 21. 29. 51. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 14. 5. 5. 8. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 19. 26. 45. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 7.9 - 8.0 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19910101 TO 19980714 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 142 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 142 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1991 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 27493. 8200. 10660. 15375. 23902. 34800. 47600. 143900. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26456. 4901. 10030. 14100. 21200. 34401. 47170. 159200. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.6346E+01 + 8.4857E-01 LN(FLOW) - 1.2248E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.4566E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.2608E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.170 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 39.81 ( 25 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.031 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.6346E+01 + 8.4857E-01 LN(FLOW) - 1.2248E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.4566E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.2608E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.170 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.6668E+01 + 8.3240E-01 LN(FLOW) - 8.6184E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.8998E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.2676E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12. 15. 17. 9. 5. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 43. 57. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 15. 16. 9. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 43. 57. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12. 15. 17. 9. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 6. 10. 16. 21. 24. 43. 58. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 12. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19910101 TO 19980714 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 152 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 148 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1991 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26062. 8200. 10230. 14825. 22500. 34500. 46210. 100000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26456. 4901. 10030. 14100. 21200. 34401. 47170. 159200. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.0812E+02 + 1.0436E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.9269E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.7775E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.5566E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.738 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 41.60 ( 27 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.036 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.0090E+02 + 1.0477E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.8503E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.7037E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.5206E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.721 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.0422E+02 + 8.4964E-01 LN(FLOW) - 5.6342E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.2371E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.5264E-01 DECTIME WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 4.90 5.40 5.00 5.60 3.40 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.48 0.78 0.62 0.74 0.47 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 17. 24. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 4.60 5.20 4.80 5.30 3.20 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 22. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 4.50 5.90 5.10 4.00 2.80 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 4.4 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19910101 TO 19980714 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 119 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 119 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26961. 8300. 10600. 14900. 24200. 34600. 48000. 100000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26456. 4901. 10030. 14100. 21200. 34401. 47170. 159200. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.6638E+01 + 8.4371E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.2983E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 4.9862E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.0983E+00 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.236 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 32.78 ( 20 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.036 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.6638E+01 + 8.4371E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.2983E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 4.9862E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.0983E+00 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.236 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.6823E+01 + 8.3939E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.2466E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 5.6800E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.0487E+00 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3400. 3600. 7800. 1700. 200. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 240. 330. 640. 140. 15. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 8. 25. 57. 91. 103. 122. 135. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 12. 312. 1689. 5198. 8647. 10691. 26862. 35982. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3400. 3700. 7900. 1700. 200. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 8. 26. 57. 92. 105. 126. 137. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 13. 316. 1706. 5259. 8801. 10925. 27446. 38527. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3500. 3600. 8000. 1900. 210. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 8. 26. 56. 92. 105. 132. 145. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 12. 317. 1703. 5152. 8713. 10873. 28985. 41256. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 3100. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19910101 TO 19980714 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 152 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 152 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1991 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26062. 8200. 10230. 14825. 22500. 34500. 46210. 100000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26456. 4901. 10030. 14100. 21200. 34401. 47170. 159200. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.5426E+01 + 6.6336E-01 LN(FLOW) + 9.7691E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.6657E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 2.3791E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.058 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 36.35 ( 27 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.108 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.5426E+01 + 6.6336E-01 LN(FLOW) + 9.7691E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.6657E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 2.3791E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.058 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.4909E+01 + 6.8614E-01 LN(FLOW) + 7.4037E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.4060E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 2.3656E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1200. 1700. 1300. 980. 860. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 27. 63. 39. 32. 31. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 16. 19. 23. 27. 29. 37. 39. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 428. 842. 1075. 1470. 1973. 2241. 3046. 4271. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1200. 1700. 1300. 980. 870. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 16. 19. 23. 27. 30. 37. 39. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 430. 846. 1080. 1477. 1983. 2251. 3065. 4304. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1200. 1700. 1300. 1000. 860. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 16. 19. 23. 26. 29. 36. 37. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 428. 845. 1084. 1491. 1969. 2250. 3110. 4391. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1200. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silicon LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19910101 TO 19980714 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 152 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 152 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1991 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26062. 8200. 10230. 14825. 22500. 34500. 46210. 100000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26456. 4901. 10030. 14100. 21200. 34401. 47170. 159200. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.2981E+01 + 1.1054E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6139E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.4807E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.5344E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.094 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 54.34 ( 27 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.2981E+01 + 1.1054E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6139E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.4807E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.5344E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.094 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.3963E+01 + 1.0389E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.8451E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.3609E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 2.5467E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam #3 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBERS: M796.9N and M796.9M LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 440. 600. 510. 410. 240. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 14. 30. 21. 18. 11. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 81. 244. 378. 561. 762. 921. 1777. 2584. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 440. 600. 510. 410. 240. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 81. 243. 376. 558. 759. 918. 1772. 2585. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 440. 630. 520. 370. 230. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 88. 242. 363. 568. 775. 932. 1725. 2518. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 440.