1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 3 STATION NUMBER: UM 796.9 DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 359 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 359 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 18521. 1600. 5700. 8200. 13200. 23900. 38100. 96800. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 20968. 1600. 6200. 9000. 15700. 28300. 42500. 128400. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.7760E+00 + 4.8496E-01 LN(FLOW) + 3.8368E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.3641E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.3928E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 6.4562E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.120 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 96.89 ( 68 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.012 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.7760E+00 + 4.8496E-01 LN(FLOW) + 3.8368E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.3641E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.3928E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 6.4562E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.120 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.9497E+00 + 2.1147E-01 LN(FLOW) + 5.3413E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.1945E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.1871E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 7.6720E-03 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 3 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 796.9 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 190. 330. 200. 140. 83. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 6. 14. 7. 5. 3. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 61. 118. 244. 420. 590. 1029. 1841. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 190. 330. 200. 140. 83. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 61. 118. 244. 420. 591. 1032. 1854. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 190. 340. 200. 150. 84. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 9. 60. 119. 245. 429. 607. 1087. 2025. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 180. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 3 STATION NUMBER: UM 796.9 DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 567 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 567 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 20500. 1600. 6200. 8600. 14800. 27200. 41680. 96800. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 20968. 1600. 6200. 9000. 15700. 28300. 42500. 128400. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 7.4933E+01 + 1.5639E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.3767E-03 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.2625E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.5980E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.384 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 165.89 (110 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 7.4933E+01 + 1.5639E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.3767E-03 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.2625E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.5980E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.384 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 7.4759E+01 + 1.5077E+00 LN(FLOW) + 6.1433E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.6307E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.6176E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 3 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 796.9 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 140. 250. 130. 110. 55. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 6. 13. 7. 6. 3. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 29. 73. 170. 343. 471. 885. 1902. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 130. 250. 130. 110. 55. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 29. 72. 168. 338. 464. 873. 1878. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 130. 250. 130. 95. 52. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 29. 70. 164. 328. 464. 832. 1781. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 130. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 3 STATION NUMBER: UM 796.9 DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 604 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 545 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 20813. 1600. 6267. 8700. 15050. 27675. 42800. 96800. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 20968. 1600. 6200. 9000. 15700. 28300. 42500. 128400. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.3769E+02 + 3.5714E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.3457E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.4361E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.3361E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.2586E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.689 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 225.67 (117 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.2798E+02 + 3.3202E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.2219E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.4427E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.9520E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.2031E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.644 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.2378E+02 + 2.1139E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.4817E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 4.1556E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.2095E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.1500E-01 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 3 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 796.9 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 16. 27. 8. 12. 18. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 2. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 5. 10. 22. 34. 50. 87. 167. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 17. 28. 8. 12. 18. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 5. 11. 23. 36. 51. 90. 171. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 16. 28. 8. 11. 19. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 6. 11. 22. 35. 50. 87. 166. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 14. - 15. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 3 STATION NUMBER: UM 796.9 DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 602 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 601 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 20933. 1600. 6459. 8800. 15100. 28050. 43010. 96800. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 20968. 1600. 6200. 9000. 15700. 28300. 42500. 128400. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.0946E+00 - 1.7327E-01 LN(FLOW) + 5.4956E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 3.9927E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.3103E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.117 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 143.05 (117 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.051 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.0768E+00 - 1.6968E-01 LN(FLOW) + 5.4779E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 4.0378E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.3080E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.117 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.8615E+00 - 1.6571E-01 LN(FLOW) + 5.6556E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 6.3199E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.2407E-01 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 3 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 796.9 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 16. 13. 8. 4. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 7. 14. 21. 26. 43. 77. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 16. 13. 8. 4. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 7. 14. 21. 26. 43. 77. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 16. 13. 8. 4. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 7. 14. 22. 27. 45. 84. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 10. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 3 STATION NUMBER: UM 796.9 DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (measured as Orthophosphate) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 378 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 374 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1977 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 22557. 1600. 7390. 10450. 16801. 30451. 44938. 96800. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 20968. 1600. 6200. 9000. 15700. 28300. 42500. 128400. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.2997E+01 - 1.4344E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.1609E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.0228E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.5948E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 1.7493E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.470 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 167.91 ( 72 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.2489E+01 - 1.4307E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.1590E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.9872E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.4116E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 1.7230E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.466 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.2015E+01 - 1.4547E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.1937E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.8847E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.4109E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 1.7009E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 3 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 796.9 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 5.10 6.50 5.50 5.40 3.10 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.23 0.46 0.33 0.35 0.20 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 18. 36. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 5.00 6.30 5.30 5.20 3.00 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 17. 36. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 5.20 7.80 5.50 4.40 2.90 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 21. 42. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 5.2 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 3 STATION NUMBER: UM 796.9 DRAINAGE AREA: 45170.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Solids LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 574 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 563 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 20720. 1600. 6200. 8600. 14800. 27300. 43201. 96800. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 20968. 1600. 6200. 9000. 15700. 28300. 42500. 128400. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.7943E+01 + 1.2478E-01 LN(FLOW) + 7.3850E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 5.4208E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.0235E+00 COS(DECTIME) - 1.6026E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.335 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 129.99 (111 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.105 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.6329E+01 + 9.8566E-02 LN(FLOW) + 7.4888E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 5.3638E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.0165E+00 COS(DECTIME) - 1.5132E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.332 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.6660E+01 + 1.6270E-01 LN(FLOW) + 7.1901E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 5.3503E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 9.6428E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.5459E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 3 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 796.9 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2700. 3300. 5400. 1700. 210. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 120. 180. 260. 86. 9. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 8. 25. 49. 75. 88. 128. 216. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 33. 259. 913. 3322. 6926. 9405. 20920. 74693. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2700. 3300. 5400. 1700. 210. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 9. 26. 49. 75. 89. 128. 220. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 34. 265. 928. 3363. 6957. 9494. 20920. 75837. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2600. 3300. 5200. 1700. 220. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 9. 25. 48. 73. 85. 122. 208. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 35. 272. 921. 3294. 6777. 9159. 20082. 71941. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2100.