1 STATION NAME: St Croix River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: SC 00.3 DRAINAGE AREA: 7722.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 358 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 358 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5663. 1522. 2042. 2819. 3868. 6374. 11246. 42201. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 6220. 1109. 2240. 2983. 4282. 7314. 12623. 45419. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.9357E+00 + 1.0034E+00 LN(FLOW) + 8.4062E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.1838E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 3.8601E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.082 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 85.12 ( 68 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.078 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.9357E+00 + 1.0034E+00 LN(FLOW) + 8.4062E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.1838E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 3.8601E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.082 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.9664E+00 + 9.9999E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0696E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.1645E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 3.8857E-03 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: St Croix River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: SC 00.3 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 19. 33. 15. 16. 11. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 9. 13. 22. 39. 53. 92. 147. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 19. 33. 16. 17. 11. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 9. 13. 22. 39. 53. 93. 148. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 19. 33. 16. 16. 11. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 9. 13. 22. 39. 54. 94. 150. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 19. 1 STATION NAME: St Croix River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: SC 00.3 DRAINAGE AREA: 7722.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 567 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 563 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 6009. 1522. 2240. 2921. 4047. 6906. 12207. 42201. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 6220. 1109. 2240. 2983. 4282. 7314. 12623. 45419. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.0164E+01 + 9.4430E-01 LN(FLOW) + 2.7526E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.8218E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.5912E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.257 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 200.01 (110 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.0041E+01 + 9.4180E-01 LN(FLOW) + 2.7566E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.7902E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.5862E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.255 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.0009E+01 + 9.0363E-01 LN(FLOW) + 3.2199E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.9796E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.6013E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: St Croix River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: SC 00.3 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 15. 5. 7. 8. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 6. 10. 17. 23. 39. 72. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 9. 15. 5. 7. 8. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 6. 10. 17. 23. 40. 73. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 9. 15. 5. 6. 7. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 6. 10. 17. 23. 40. 72. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 8.3 1 STATION NAME: St Croix River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: SC 00.3 DRAINAGE AREA: 7722.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 607 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 508 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 6119. 1522. 2240. 2921. 4134. 7042. 12401. 42201. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 6220. 1109. 2240. 2983. 4282. 7314. 12623. 45419. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7701E+02 + 1.2570E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.8051E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.6639E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 9.0661E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.600 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 264.16 (118 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6730E+02 + 1.1923E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.6041E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.0142E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.5458E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.545 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6738E+02 + 1.2872E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.1491E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.5506E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.5918E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: St Croix River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: SC 00.3 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.20 4.50 1.40 1.70 1.30 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.12 0.33 0.08 0.12 0.07 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 17. 62. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.40 4.70 1.60 1.90 1.40 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 18. 58. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.60 5.40 1.60 1.90 1.50 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 21. 75. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2.2 1 STATION NAME: St Croix River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: SC 00.3 DRAINAGE AREA: 7722.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 603 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 576 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 6180. 1522. 2245. 2933. 4158. 7153. 12648. 42201. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 6220. 1109. 2240. 2983. 4282. 7314. 12623. 45419. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.9833E+01 + 1.3325E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1678E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 7.4485E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 3.2320E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.503 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 256.10 (117 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.0415E+01 + 1.3160E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1780E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 7.1548E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 3.2534E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.493 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.0059E+01 + 1.2900E+00 LN(FLOW) - 9.6587E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.2980E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 3.2259E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: St Croix River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: SC 00.3 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.00 1.80 0.94 0.99 0.41 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.05 0.12 0.05 0.06 0.02 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 15. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.20 2.00 1.00 1.10 0.46 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 17. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.10 2.00 0.98 1.10 0.49 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 16. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1.1 1 STATION NAME: St Croix River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: SC 00.3 DRAINAGE AREA: 7722.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (measured as Orthophosphate) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 373 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 340 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1977 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 6429. 1671. 2579. 3212. 4455. 7593. 13168. 42201. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 6220. 1109. 2240. 2983. 4282. 7314. 12623. 45419. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.6799E+00 + 1.0528E+00 LN(FLOW) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.185 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 218.05 ( 71 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.4976E+00 + 1.0376E+00 LN(FLOW) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.126 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.2266E+00 + 9.9999E-01 LN(FLOW) 1 STATION: St Croix River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: SC 00.3 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.62 1.00 0.54 0.57 0.33 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.05 0.11 0.04 0.04 0.03 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.91 1.50 0.80 0.83 0.49 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.90 1.50 0.79 0.83 0.50 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1.2 1 STATION NAME: St Croix River near confluence with Mississippi River STATION NUMBER: SC 00.3 DRAINAGE AREA: 7722.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Solids LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 573 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 517 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 6102. 1522. 2245. 2921. 4084. 7017. 12648. 42201. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 6220. 1109. 2240. 2983. 4282. 7314. 12623. 45419. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.0008E+02 + 1.2544E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.5066E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.4827E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 4.9937E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.418 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 143.70 (111 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.020 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 8.5774E+01 + 1.1956E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.0606E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.1484E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 4.2460E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.406 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 8.4089E+01 + 1.1955E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.5440E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.6152E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 4.1632E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: St Croix River near confluence with Mississippi River (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: SC 00.3 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 97. 150. 100. 100. 34. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 4. 9. 5. 6. 2. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 14. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 32. 56. 111. 214. 308. 671. 1293. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 100. 160. 100. 100. 38. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 13. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 36. 60. 116. 215. 304. 637. 1184. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 100. 150. 110. 100. 36. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 11. 13. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 36. 61. 117. 218. 307. 635. 1173. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 94. - 97.