1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Thebes. IL STATION NUMBER: 07022000 DRAINAGE AREA: 713200.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19740101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 251 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 251 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 230753. 50000. 95000. 132000. 192000. 298000. 436600. 885000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 232801. 46000. 89460. 127000. 187000. 304000. 448000. 978000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.0116E+01 + 5.0180E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.5125E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.2218E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 3.8875E-03 COS(DECTIME) + 8.3087E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.117 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 38.96 ( 47 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.792 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.0116E+01 + 5.0180E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.5125E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.2218E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 3.8875E-03 COS(DECTIME) + 8.3087E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.117 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.4411E+01 + 6.1289E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.9715E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.3627E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 8.3759E-03 COS(DECTIME) + 2.0532E-03 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Thebes. IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 07022000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2400. 4200. 2400. 1400. 1800. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 71. 170. 86. 58. 69. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 203. 892. 1723. 3456. 5463. 6582. 9010. 10519. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2400. 4200. 2400. 1400. 1800. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 204. 891. 1721. 3453. 5461. 6579. 9043. 10551. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2400. 4200. 2300. 1400. 1800. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 200. 902. 1752. 3520. 5369. 6480. 8228. 9965. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2400. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Thebes. IL STATION NUMBER: 07022000 DRAINAGE AREA: 713200.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19740101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 271 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 269 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 238193. 50000. 95000. 134000. 198000. 316000. 436600. 885000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 232801. 46000. 89460. 127000. 187000. 304000. 448000. 978000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.0064E+02 + 8.7587E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.9861E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.2282E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.0997E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 2.6615E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.287 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 95.01 ( 51 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.0045E+02 + 8.7713E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.9914E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.2386E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.0491E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 2.6482E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.285 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.9303E+01 + 1.1217E+01 LN(FLOW) - 3.9930E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.9043E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.4453E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 1.3382E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Thebes. IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 07022000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1600. 2800. 1600. 920. 1100. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 72. 170. 90. 60. 71. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 68. 523. 1126. 2353. 3753. 4522. 6325. 7397. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1600. 2700. 1600. 890. 1100. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 67. 507. 1093. 2283. 3642. 4390. 6184. 7198. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1600. 2900. 1600. 820. 1100. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 61. 505. 1124. 2399. 3668. 4318. 5388. 6224. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1600. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Thebes. IL STATION NUMBER: 07022000 DRAINAGE AREA: 713200.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19740101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 144 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 134 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1979 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 266595. 63900. 120000. 148250. 230000. 350500. 471000. 885000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 232801. 46000. 89460. 127000. 187000. 304000. 448000. 978000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.5479E+02 + 9.5339E-01 LN(FLOW) + 2.6471E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.1994E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 7.8038E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.469 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 40.61 ( 25 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.025 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.5867E+02 + 9.5919E-01 LN(FLOW) + 2.6244E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.8905E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.0019E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.449 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6043E+02 + 9.9184E-01 LN(FLOW) + 3.3177E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.2436E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.1112E-02 DECTIME WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Thebes. IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 07022000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 95. 140. 39. 64. 140. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 18. 5. 8. 17. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 37. 69. 118. 202. 268. 421. 845. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 99. 140. 42. 67. 140. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 39. 72. 122. 213. 281. 447. 894. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 99. 150. 44. 61. 140. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 39. 70. 121. 217. 293. 457. 898. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 59. - 60. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Thebes. IL STATION NUMBER: 07022000 DRAINAGE AREA: 713200.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19740101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 263 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 263 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 236368. 50000. 95000. 133000. 196000. 303000. 445600. 885000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 232801. 46000. 89460. 127000. 187000. 304000. 448000. 978000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.3880E+01 + 1.2776E+00 LN(FLOW) - 8.2694E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.2737E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 1.3564E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.170 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 48.51 ( 49 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.493 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.3880E+01 + 1.2776E+00 LN(FLOW) - 8.2694E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.2737E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 1.3564E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.170 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.3772E+01 + 1.2600E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.2430E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.7912E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 1.3413E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Thebes. IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 07022000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 200. 290. 220. 150. 140. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 6. 13. 9. 7. 6. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 24. 88. 143. 262. 426. 511. 766. 1123. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 200. 290. 220. 150. 140. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 24. 88. 143. 263. 427. 511. 768. 1127. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 200. 290. 210. 150. 140. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 26. 89. 143. 263. 425. 509. 750. 1068. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 200. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Thebes. IL STATION NUMBER: 07022000 DRAINAGE AREA: 713200.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (measured as Dissolved Orthophosphate) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19740101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 128 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 128 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1977 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 275655. 79100. 122000. 149250. 236500. 367500. 479000. 885000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 232801. 46000. 89460. 127000. 187000. 304000. 448000. 978000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.4331E+01 + 7.9483E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.7644E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.0174E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.7890E-04 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.078 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 34.54 ( 22 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.043 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.4331E+01 + 7.9483E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.7644E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.0174E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.7890E-04 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.078 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.4325E+01 + 7.9528E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.7664E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.3446E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 3.2226E-02 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Thebes. IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 07022000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 56. 69. 61. 51. 42. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 30. 48. 76. 103. 116. 166. 191. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 55. 68. 60. 51. 41. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 30. 48. 76. 103. 116. 166. 192. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 55. 66. 62. 52. 40. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 29. 48. 76. 101. 115. 168. 200. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 56. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Thebes. IL STATION NUMBER: 07022000 DRAINAGE AREA: 713200.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19740101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 170 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 170 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1992 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 224175. 50000. 90510. 131000. 192000. 286750. 438600. 661000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 232801. 46000. 89460. 127000. 187000. 304000. 448000. 978000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.9005E+01 + 1.9638E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6878E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.457 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 25.56 ( 31 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.742 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.9005E+01 + 1.9638E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6878E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.457 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 7.0717E+00 + 1.9850E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.9395E-03 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Thebes. IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 07022000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 330000. 570000. 350000. 200000. 200000. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 28000. 53000. 32000. 16000. 14000. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 82. 217. 317. 510. 727. 851. 1109. 1359. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 11346. 74482. 159008. 415779. 877906. 1186301. 2120159. 3445796. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 340000. 580000. 350000. 200000. 200000. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 84. 220. 322. 518. 739. 868. 1130. 1388. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 11589. 75657. 161164. 423141. 895665. 1206758. 2164592. 3549187. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 350000. 610000. 380000. 220000. 210000. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 86. 225. 328. 533. 779. 898. 1228. 1588. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10702. 77060. 165595. 435988. 940012. 1245893. 2381238. 4188585. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 310000. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Thebes. IL STATION NUMBER: 07022000 DRAINAGE AREA: 713200.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19740101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 208 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 208 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 235848. 50000. 92890. 132000. 193000. 302250. 460700. 885000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 232801. 46000. 89460. 127000. 187000. 304000. 448000. 978000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.0912E+01 + 2.5529E+00 LN(FLOW) - 7.7359E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.1665E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.7407E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 9.1766E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.025 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 37.11 ( 38 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.511 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.0912E+01 + 2.5529E+00 LN(FLOW) - 7.7359E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.1665E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.7407E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 9.1766E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.025 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.0846E+01 + 2.5681E+00 LN(FLOW) - 7.7745E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.0798E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.6191E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 9.0753E-03 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Thebes. IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 07022000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12000. 16000. 11000. 9300. 11000. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 150. 300. 200. 190. 210. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. 32. 33. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3832. 7804. 10912. 15438. 19109. 21261. 24817. 27606. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12000. 16000. 11000. 9300. 11000. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. 32. 33. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3834. 7805. 10913. 15439. 19111. 21276. 24858. 27627. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12000. 16000. 11000. 9400. 11000. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 18. 21. 24. 27. 28. 31. 32. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3780. 7812. 10927. 15418. 19126. 21260. 25073. 27453. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 12000. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Thebes. IL STATION NUMBER: 07022000 DRAINAGE AREA: 713200.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silica (The values represented here are for SiO2. Values for loads and concentrations have been converted to represent elemental Si. Si = 0.46744 * SiO2 ) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19740101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 155 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 155 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 245775. 50000. 97800. 135000. 207000. 316000. 475600. 885000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 232801. 46000. 89460. 127000. 187000. 304000. 448000. 978000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.5105E+01 + 4.5542E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.3602E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.4367E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.5003E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 1.8058E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.187 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 71.92 ( 28 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.5105E+01 + 4.5542E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.3602E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.4367E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.5003E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 1.8058E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.187 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.5050E+01 + 4.5479E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.3576E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.1952E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.8483E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 1.8066E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Thebes. IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 07022000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 6000. 8300. 5100. 5000. 5600. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 340. 560. 360. 390. 420. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 658. 2808. 4802. 8160. 11760. 14943. 20869. 27725. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 5900. 8100. 5000. 4900. 5500. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 652. 2742. 4689. 7972. 11500. 14612. 20627. 27438. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 5900. 8600. 5300. 4600. 5200. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 633. 2668. 4623. 8136. 11860. 14716. 20112. 25225. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 5400.