1 STATION NAME: Kaskaskia River at Venedy Station, IL STATION NUMBER: 05594100 DRAINAGE AREA: 4393.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19740101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 179 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 179 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 3513. 70. 128. 392. 1500. 4380. 9630. 35000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 3820. 70. 133. 461. 1920. 4750. 10940. 46000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.5881E-01 + 1.6511E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.5967E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.6445E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.0153E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.222 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 38.67 ( 32 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.194 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.5881E-01 + 1.6511E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.5967E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.6445E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.0153E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.222 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.0573E-01 + 1.6180E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.4670E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.2564E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 3.9329E-02 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Kaskaskia River at Venedy Station, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05594100 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 27. 49. 14. 7. 38. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 2. 4. 1. 1. 3. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 12. 34. 81. 107. 159. 354. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 29. 52. 15. 8. 41. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 12. 36. 86. 114. 170. 382. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 30. 54. 14. 7. 43. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 12. 36. 90. 119. 177. 369. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 26. 1 STATION NAME: Kaskaskia River at Venedy Station, IL STATION NUMBER: 05594100 DRAINAGE AREA: 4393.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19740101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 181 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 157 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 3389. 70. 128. 419. 1570. 4350. 9618. 32600. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 3820. 70. 133. 461. 1920. 4750. 10940. 46000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.5810E+01 + 2.9505E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.0379E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 5.3564E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 7.4965E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 2.6871E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.011 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 70.74 ( 33 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.2272E+01 + 2.5024E+00 LN(FLOW) - 7.5670E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 4.8624E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.0261E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.4192E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.936 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.1221E+01 + 2.3697E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.9636E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 4.9405E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.5335E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.3266E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Kaskaskia River at Venedy Station, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05594100 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 19. 40. 8. 3. 26. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 3. 7. 1. 1. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 6. 22. 60. 90. 144. 272. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 18. 38. 7. 3. 25. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 5. 21. 57. 84. 144. 311. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 17. 36. 7. 3. 22. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 5. 20. 51. 77. 130. 285. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 14. 1 STATION NAME: Kaskaskia River at Venedy Station, IL STATION NUMBER: 05594100 DRAINAGE AREA: 4393.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19740101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 52 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 48 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1979 TO 1986 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 3884. 96. 149. 466. 1503. 5955. 11440. 21400. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 3820. 70. 133. 461. 1920. 4750. 10940. 46000. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.6840E+00 + 1.2314E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.8167E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.3783E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.320 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 11.87 ( 7 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.105 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.5316E+00 + 1.2162E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.6022E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.9661E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.252 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.8451E+00 + 1.2638E+00 LN(FLOW) + 3.3396E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.7323E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Kaskaskia River at Venedy Station, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05594100 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.40 3.50 0.55 0.67 4.80 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.65 1.10 0.16 0.21 1.50 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 11. 19. 49. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.40 3.60 0.60 0.70 4.80 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 11. 19. 50. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.60 3.60 0.60 0.87 5.50 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 12. 23. 65. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1.6 1 STATION NAME: Kaskaskia River at Venedy Station, IL STATION NUMBER: 05594100 DRAINAGE AREA: 4393.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19740101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 183 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 183 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 3545. 70. 128. 395. 1570. 4380. 9636. 35000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 3820. 70. 133. 461. 1920. 4750. 10940. 46000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.7686E+01 + 1.0527E+00 LN(FLOW) + 3.8267E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.2373E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.8969E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.370 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 52.19 ( 33 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.018 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.7686E+01 + 1.0527E+00 LN(FLOW) + 3.8267E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.2373E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.8969E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.370 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.7563E+01 + 1.0624E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.0214E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.0571E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.8833E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Kaskaskia River at Venedy Station, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05594100 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.00 4.70 1.70 1.10 4.40 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.21 0.39 0.15 0.11 0.40 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 17. 53. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.00 4.70 1.70 1.10 4.40 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 11. 18. 54. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.00 4.60 1.90 1.20 4.20 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 17. 56. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2.9 1 STATION NAME: Kaskaskia River at Venedy Station, IL STATION NUMBER: 05594100 DRAINAGE AREA: 4393.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (measured as Dissolved Orthophosphate) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19740101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 36 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 34 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1977 TO 1986 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5918. 107. 331. 881. 3980. 9530. 15230. 21400. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 3820. 70. 133. 461. 1920. 4750. 10940. 46000. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.7113E+00 + 1.4560E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.0846E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0060E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.433 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 9.85 ( 4 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.043 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.6577E+00 + 1.4503E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.1040E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.6450E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.425 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.0484E+00 + 1.5088E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.8919E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.5304E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Kaskaskia River at Venedy Station, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05594100 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.10 1.20 0.49 0.62 2.00 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.16 0.25 0.10 0.12 0.36 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 10. 39. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.10 1.20 0.48 0.61 2.00 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 10. 39. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.10 1.30 0.59 0.65 1.90 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 10. 43. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1.1 1 STATION NAME: Kaskaskia River at Venedy Station, IL STATION NUMBER: 05594100 DRAINAGE AREA: 4393.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19740101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 197 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 197 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1992 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 4277. 70. 157. 474. 1740. 5075. 10980. 46000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 3820. 70. 133. 461. 1920. 4750. 10940. 46000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.6616E+01 + 1.2368E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.6764E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 5.2248E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.1195E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.724 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 65.85 ( 36 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.002 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.6616E+01 + 1.2368E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.6764E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 5.2248E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.1195E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.724 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.6533E+01 + 1.2666E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.1060E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 5.0634E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.1346E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Kaskaskia River at Venedy Station, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05594100 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1900. 3000. 1600. 730. 2100. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 180. 340. 180. 100. 290. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 41. 105. 141. 202. 273. 307. 385. 427. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 138. 834. 2680. 5102. 6928. 11955. 42228. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2200. 3600. 1900. 860. 2500. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 48. 124. 165. 238. 321. 360. 455. 504. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 162. 979. 3154. 6016. 8151. 14069. 49928. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2400. 4000. 1900. 860. 2800. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 45. 124. 168. 245. 330. 370. 466. 515. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 9. 158. 992. 3308. 6625. 9126. 16128. 57437. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1900. 1 STATION NAME: Kaskaskia River at Venedy Station, IL STATION NUMBER: 05594100 DRAINAGE AREA: 4393.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19740101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 178 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 178 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 3575. 70. 129. 394. 1573. 4356. 10210. 35000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 3820. 70. 133. 461. 1920. 4750. 10940. 46000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.2157E+01 + 1.2482E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.3664E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.3527E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0444E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.6445E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.083 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 30.34 ( 32 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.551 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.2157E+01 + 1.2482E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.3664E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.3527E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0444E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.6445E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.083 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.2349E+01 + 1.2292E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.1069E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.1360E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1590E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.7426E-03 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Kaskaskia River at Venedy Station, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05594100 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 210. 330. 120. 80. 310. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 7. 14. 5. 3. 13. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 21. 27. 34. 41. 46. 54. 60. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 44. 139. 299. 552. 659. 861. 1322. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 210. 330. 120. 80. 310. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 21. 27. 34. 41. 46. 54. 60. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 44. 139. 298. 551. 658. 860. 1325. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 210. 340. 120. 82. 330. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 9. 21. 27. 34. 40. 44. 52. 58. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 44. 139. 303. 572. 684. 906. 1433. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 220. 1 STATION NAME: Kaskaskia River at Venedy Station, IL STATION NUMBER: 05594100 DRAINAGE AREA: 4393.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silica (The values represented here are for SiO2. Values for loads and concentrations have been converted to represent elemental Si. Si = 0.46744 * SiO2 ) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19740101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 116 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 116 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1986 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 4082. 70. 141. 461. 1680. 4940. 11530. 35000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 3820. 70. 133. 461. 1920. 4750. 10940. 46000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 7.7182E+00 - 4.4506E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0323E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.378 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 44.08 ( 20 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 7.7182E+00 - 4.4506E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0323E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.378 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.0550E+00 + 6.1926E-02 LN(FLOW) + 6.9270E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Kaskaskia River at Venedy Station, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05594100 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 55. 89. 21. 18. 93. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 6. 10. 2. 1. 11. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 13. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 17. 51. 162. 236. 471. 1622. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 53. 86. 20. 17. 90. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 13. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 16. 49. 156. 228. 457. 1607. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 51. 81. 21. 17. 84. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 10. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 18. 51. 151. 214. 400. 1214. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 51.