1 STATION NAME: Sangamon River at Oakford, IL STATION NUMBER: 05583000 DRAINAGE AREA: 5093.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19941231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 149 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 149 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1977 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 4312. 211. 356. 561. 2200. 5430. 11950. 45100. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 4041. 170. 364. 693. 2040. 5090. 10400. 72800. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.1969E+01 + 2.0405E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.1086E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.1045E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.0676E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 4.5427E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.330 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 56.88 ( 26 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.1969E+01 + 2.0405E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.1086E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.1045E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.0676E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 4.5427E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.330 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.8578E+01 + 2.2868E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.5933E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.6112E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1354E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 4.3270E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Sangamon River at Oakford, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05583000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 84. 170. 53. 33. 80. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 7. 17. 5. 4. 8. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 6. 30. 104. 240. 349. 621. 2577. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 82. 170. 51. 32. 78. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 6. 29. 100. 233. 339. 610. 2649. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 84. 170. 49. 31. 84. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 6. 29. 104. 241. 349. 633. 2445. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 78. 1 STATION NAME: Sangamon River at Oakford, IL STATION NUMBER: 05583000 DRAINAGE AREA: 5093.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19941231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 136 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 130 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1979 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 4364. 211. 350. 557. 2200. 5558. 11980. 45100. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 4041. 170. 364. 693. 2040. 5090. 10400. 72800. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.1487E+01 + 4.2753E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.7751E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.9279E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.0592E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.520 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 77.06 ( 24 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.1076E+01 + 4.1802E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.7209E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.9222E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.8960E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.501 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.6264E+00 + 3.9535E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6535E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.8814E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.4616E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Sangamon River at Oakford, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05583000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 94. 190. 47. 36. 110. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 24. 6. 6. 14. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 5. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 4. 32. 123. 280. 401. 641. 987. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 89. 180. 45. 34. 99. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 13. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 4. 30. 115. 264. 380. 608. 1055. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 73. 150. 44. 27. 74. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 4. 30. 101. 212. 302. 447. 744. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 70. 1 STATION NAME: Sangamon River at Oakford, IL STATION NUMBER: 05583000 DRAINAGE AREA: 5093.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19941231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 112 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 97 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 3783. 230. 357. 557. 2163. 4923. 9841. 21500. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 4041. 170. 364. 693. 2040. 5090. 10400. 72800. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1256E+02 + 6.5000E-01 LN(FLOW) + 6.6623E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0815E+00 COS(DECTIME) - 5.5935E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.578 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 44.51 ( 19 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1465E+02 + 6.7352E-01 LN(FLOW) + 6.2744E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0001E+00 COS(DECTIME) - 5.7035E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.440 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1471E+02 + 6.8288E-01 LN(FLOW) + 6.0873E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.2108E+00 COS(DECTIME) - 5.7050E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Sangamon River at Oakford, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05583000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.40 2.40 0.29 0.47 2.50 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.27 0.53 0.06 0.12 0.55 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 17. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.40 2.50 0.33 0.50 2.50 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 18. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.60 2.50 0.28 0.57 3.00 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 20. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1.2 1 STATION NAME: Sangamon River at Oakford, IL STATION NUMBER: 05583000 DRAINAGE AREA: 5093.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19941231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 151 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 151 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1977 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 4318. 211. 356. 567. 2200. 5430. 11880. 45100. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 4041. 170. 364. 693. 2040. 5090. 10400. 72800. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.5617E+01 - 1.2094E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.3047E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.3135E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.169 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 38.69 ( 27 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.068 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.5617E+01 - 1.2094E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.3047E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.3135E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.169 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.5521E+01 - 1.2842E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.3426E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.2943E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Sangamon River at Oakford, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05583000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.60 6.50 2.80 2.00 3.30 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.20 0.47 0.12 0.08 0.17 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 26. 118. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.70 6.50 2.80 2.00 3.30 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 27. 122. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.60 6.40 2.80 2.00 3.20 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 26. 119. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 3.7 1 STATION NAME: Sangamon River at Oakford, IL STATION NUMBER: 05583000 DRAINAGE AREA: 5093.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (measured as Dissolved Orthophosphate) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19941231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 85 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 85 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 4086. 230. 365. 756. 2345. 5160. 10004. 21500. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 4041. 170. 364. 693. 2040. 5090. 10400. 72800. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.0231E+01 - 1.4217E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.3827E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.6589E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.0230E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.288 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 17.19 ( 14 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.246 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.0231E+01 - 1.4217E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.3827E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.6589E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.0230E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.288 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.0474E+01 - 1.4099E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.3387E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.7715E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.5307E-02 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Sangamon River at Oakford, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05583000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.80 2.60 1.30 1.40 2.00 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.18 0.36 0.14 0.17 0.23 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 61. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.80 2.70 1.30 1.40 2.00 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 67. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.70 2.50 1.50 1.30 1.60 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 44. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1.6 1 STATION NAME: Sangamon River at Oakford, IL STATION NUMBER: 05583000 DRAINAGE AREA: 5093.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19941231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 87 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 87 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1979 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 3832. 290. 403. 652. 2200. 5262. 10527. 18667. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 4041. 170. 364. 693. 2040. 5090. 10400. 72800. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.9373E+01 + 1.7853E+00 LN(FLOW) - 7.2393E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.1314E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.4792E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.709 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 25.00 ( 14 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.035 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.9373E+01 + 1.7853E+00 LN(FLOW) - 7.2393E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.1314E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.4792E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.709 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.9433E+01 + 1.8082E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6474E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 5.2431E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.4906E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Sangamon River at Oakford, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05583000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 5700. 13000. 5700. 1800. 2600. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1100. 2400. 1200. 540. 640. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 59. 140. 290. 563. 762. 1289. 2428. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 115. 802. 3703. 14944. 26195. 76639. 344921. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 6300. 14000. 6400. 2000. 2900. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 11. 65. 153. 318. 619. 839. 1440. 2793. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 126. 877. 4040. 16479. 28780. 84470. 389130. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 6300. 13000. 6300. 2400. 3300. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 12. 68. 154. 315. 613. 835. 1388. 2976. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 129. 872. 4062. 16652. 28904. 83134. 384663. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 5900. 1 STATION NAME: Sangamon River at Oakford, IL STATION NUMBER: 05583000 DRAINAGE AREA: 5093.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19941231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 157 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 157 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 4313. 211. 344. 578. 2165. 5246. 11670. 45100. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 4041. 170. 364. 693. 2040. 5090. 10400. 72800. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.8586E+01 + 9.1881E-02 LN(FLOW) + 3.6025E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.4924E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0114E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 1.9510E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.073 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 27.35 ( 28 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.499 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.8586E+01 + 9.1881E-02 LN(FLOW) + 3.6025E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.4924E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0114E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 1.9510E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.073 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.8274E+01 + 5.7638E-02 LN(FLOW) + 3.9456E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.5425E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.1819E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 1.9381E-02 DECTIME WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Sangamon River at Oakford, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05583000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 330. 540. 240. 190. 340. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 22. 9. 8. 14. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 15. 31. 40. 57. 75. 87. 105. 130. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 49. 107. 219. 431. 740. 974. 1473. 4488. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 330. 540. 240. 190. 340. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 15. 31. 41. 57. 76. 87. 105. 131. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 49. 108. 220. 432. 742. 977. 1480. 4553. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 340. 560. 240. 190. 360. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 16. 31. 40. 56. 74. 85. 103. 129. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 47. 105. 219. 439. 771. 1022. 1585. 5045. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 310. 1 STATION NAME: Sangamon River at Oakford, IL STATION NUMBER: 05583000 DRAINAGE AREA: 5093.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silica (The values represented here are for SiO2. Values for loads and concentrations have been converted to represent elemental Si. Si = 0.46744 * SiO2 ) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19941231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 122 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 122 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 3903. 230. 357. 583. 2125. 4790. 9841. 45100. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 4041. 170. 364. 693. 2040. 5090. 10400. 72800. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.2605E+00 + 1.5243E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.5974E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.3467E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.5930E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.065 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 22.70 ( 21 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.360 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.2605E+00 + 1.5243E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.5974E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.3467E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.5930E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.065 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.2307E+00 + 1.5252E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.5081E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.1954E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.4821E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Sangamon River at Oakford, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05583000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 94. 150. 67. 59. 100. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 4. 8. 3. 4. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 13. 43. 117. 260. 359. 602. 1908. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 94. 150. 66. 59. 100. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 13. 43. 117. 259. 358. 603. 1933. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 95. 140. 70. 65. 100. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 13. 42. 117. 261. 368. 619. 2122. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 88.