1 STATION NAME: Spoon River at Seville, IL STATION NUMBER: 05570000 DRAINAGE AREA: 1636.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19770101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 44 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 44 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1978 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1149. 20. 52. 110. 746. 1615. 2625. 7370. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1329. 6. 79. 220. 620. 1450. 3010. 31600. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.2104E+02 + 2.9077E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.2559E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 5.9033E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.163 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 5.38 ( 5 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.371 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.2104E+02 + 2.9077E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.2559E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 5.9033E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.163 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.2140E+02 + 2.7776E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.1600E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 5.9423E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Spoon River at Seville, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05570000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 20. 29. 19. 13. 18. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 3. 5. 3. 2. 2. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 9. 25. 52. 79. 150. 280. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 20. 30. 19. 13. 18. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 9. 25. 52. 81. 153. 317. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 20. 30. 19. 13. 17. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 8. 24. 51. 82. 158. 350. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 26. 1 STATION NAME: Spoon River at Seville, IL STATION NUMBER: 05570000 DRAINAGE AREA: 1636.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19770101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 157 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 139 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1977 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1453. 20. 89. 225. 743. 1887. 3092. 14600. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1329. 6. 79. 220. 620. 1450. 3010. 31600. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.2842E+01 + 5.3431E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.8727E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.5407E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.7967E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.889 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 86.13 ( 28 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.1363E+01 + 4.9355E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.5968E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.4949E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.3954E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.821 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.1077E+01 + 4.9622E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.6781E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.4796E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.1692E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Spoon River at Seville, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05570000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 29. 55. 17. 13. 31. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 4. 8. 3. 2. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 6. 10. 13. 14. 16. 16. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 13. 42. 84. 113. 173. 191. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 30. 57. 19. 14. 31. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 3. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 13. 42. 86. 118. 191. 216. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 26. 49. 17. 12. 27. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 13. 38. 74. 97. 143. 155. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 20. 1 STATION NAME: Spoon River at Seville, IL STATION NUMBER: 05570000 DRAINAGE AREA: 1636.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19770101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 42 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 39 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1986 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1192. 20. 50. 99. 782. 1695. 2715. 7370. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1329. 6. 79. 220. 620. 1450. 3010. 31600. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.1991E+02 + 1.3356E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.3872E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.6683E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.1224E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.765 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 7.65 ( 5 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.177 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.2178E+02 + 1.3258E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.0031E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.3495E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.1313E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.727 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.2243E+02 + 1.2964E+00 LN(FLOW) + 4.5861E-04 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.2669E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.1334E-01 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Spoon River at Seville, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05570000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.63 0.93 0.44 0.53 0.64 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.33 0.54 0.24 0.29 0.29 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 30. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.86 1.30 0.62 0.72 0.79 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 12. 42. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.86 1.50 0.63 0.56 0.71 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 12. 34. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.38 1 STATION NAME: Spoon River at Seville, IL STATION NUMBER: 05570000 DRAINAGE AREA: 1636.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19770101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 94 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 94 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1981 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1488. 20. 73. 183. 736. 1828. 3360. 14600. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1329. 6. 79. 220. 620. 1450. 3010. 31600. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 9.6064E-01 + 2.3048E-01 LN(FLOW) + 9.2399E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 3.0809E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.9210E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.506 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 8.16 ( 15 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.917 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 9.6064E-01 + 2.3048E-01 LN(FLOW) + 9.2399E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 3.0809E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.9210E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.506 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.5829E+00 - 3.7063E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.4472E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 3.9505E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 3.2984E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Spoon River at Seville, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05570000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.60 3.40 3.90 1.80 1.30 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.57 0.75 1.00 0.40 0.27 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 39. 485. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.70 3.50 4.10 1.80 1.40 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 41. 548. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 4.40 5.00 7.60 2.90 1.90 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 19. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 13. 69. 1579. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2.2 1 STATION NAME: Spoon River at Seville, IL STATION NUMBER: 05570000 DRAINAGE AREA: 1636.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (measured as Dissolved Orthophosphate) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19770101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 42 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 35 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1986 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1192. 20. 50. 99. 782. 1695. 2715. 7370. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1329. 6. 79. 220. 620. 1450. 3010. 31600. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.0538E+02 + 2.5524E+00 LN(FLOW) - 9.0645E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 4.1313E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.3892E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 9.9444E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.558 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 17.69 ( 5 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.003 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.9335E+02 + 2.3359E+00 LN(FLOW) - 7.7102E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 3.8564E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 3.6440E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 9.3830E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.507 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.9585E+02 + 2.1937E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.4690E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.4283E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 3.2601E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 9.5244E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Spoon River at Seville, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05570000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.22 0.22 0.26 0.20 0.18 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.05 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.26 0.28 0.31 0.23 0.21 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 12. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.27 0.33 0.32 0.22 0.22 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 15. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.30 - 0.31 1 STATION NAME: Spoon River at Seville, IL STATION NUMBER: 05570000 DRAINAGE AREA: 1636.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19770101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 46 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 46 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1980 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 2226. 35. 90. 263. 1380. 2945. 7445. 9000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1329. 6. 79. 220. 620. 1450. 3010. 31600. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.8247E+02 + 1.5451E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.0728E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 5.0156E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.9940E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.090 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 26.07 ( 6 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.8247E+02 + 1.5451E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.0728E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 5.0156E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.9940E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.090 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.8275E+02 + 1.5449E+00 LN(FLOW) + 4.1267E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 5.1900E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 9.0197E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Spoon River at Seville, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05570000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 5400. 9300. 7500. 2700. 2100. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1400. 2800. 2200. 1100. 720. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 31. 245. 442. 868. 1563. 2094. 3691. 7441. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 177. 726. 3135. 10593. 22179. 94378. 391318. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 6700. 11000. 9100. 3500. 2600. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 39. 300. 536. 1051. 1892. 2546. 4557. 9088. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 216. 879. 3752. 12746. 27093. 116257. 477928. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 7100. 13000. 9200. 3100. 2700. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 38. 296. 543. 1092. 2041. 2707. 4855. 9988. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 208. 901. 3906. 13791. 28461. 124268. 525269. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 6700. 1 STATION NAME: Spoon River at Seville, IL STATION NUMBER: 05570000 DRAINAGE AREA: 1636.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19770101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 47 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 47 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1978 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1191. 20. 56. 120. 782. 1800. 2762. 7370. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1329. 6. 79. 220. 620. 1450. 3010. 31600. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.3674E+01 + 7.7421E-01 LN(FLOW) + 2.1289E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.3099E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.0187E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.118 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 18.74 ( 6 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.005 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.3674E+01 + 7.7421E-01 LN(FLOW) + 2.1289E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.3099E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.0187E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.118 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.3212E+01 + 7.6223E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.1987E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.8320E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.0003E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Spoon River at Seville, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05570000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 68. 110. 48. 40. 74. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 5. 11. 6. 5. 6. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 19. 25. 31. 39. 45. 63. 71. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 16. 42. 85. 150. 220. 447. 1007. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 68. 110. 48. 40. 74. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 19. 25. 31. 39. 45. 63. 71. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 16. 42. 85. 150. 220. 449. 1011. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 66. 100. 51. 43. 70. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 19. 25. 31. 39. 47. 63. 73. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 17. 42. 84. 144. 210. 434. 883. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 78. 1 STATION NAME: Spoon River at Seville, IL STATION NUMBER: 05570000 DRAINAGE AREA: 1636.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silica (The values represented here are for SiO2. Values for loads and concentrations have been converted to represent elemental Si. Si = 0.46744 * SiO2 ) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19770101 TO 19931231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 42 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 42 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1986 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1192. 20. 50. 99. 782. 1695. 2715. 7370. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 1329. 6. 79. 220. 620. 1450. 3010. 31600. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.9793E-01 + 1.4570E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.2246E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.1078E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.480 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 3.68 ( 5 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.596 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.9793E-01 + 1.4570E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.2246E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.1078E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.480 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.0138E-01 + 1.4203E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.9449E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.7558E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Spoon River at Seville, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05570000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 51. 76. 41. 37. 50. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 18. 10. 9. 10. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 26. 42. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 11. 37. 104. 217. 722. 2764. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 51. 76. 41. 37. 50. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 6. 10. 13. 17. 26. 43. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 11. 36. 103. 217. 725. 2806. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 48. 72. 35. 34. 49. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 24. 39. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 2. 11. 35. 99. 199. 678. 2603. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 32.