1 STATION NAME: Illinois River at Valley City, IL STATION NUMBER: 05586100 DRAINAGE AREA: 26744.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19941231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 219 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 219 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 25203. 3330. 7290. 9860. 17700. 34100. 51400. 120000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 25319. 1330. 7200. 10200. 18300. 34450. 54500. 120000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.4977E+00 + 3.2452E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.0566E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.4906E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.3628E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.085 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 60.40 ( 40 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.020 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.4977E+00 + 3.2452E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.0566E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.4906E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.3628E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.085 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.4776E+00 + 3.2761E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.0875E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.6494E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.6136E-01 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Illinois River at Valley City, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05586100 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 420. 760. 280. 200. 420. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 30. 10. 8. 15. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 120. 288. 591. 935. 1240. 1703. 2259. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 410. 760. 280. 200. 420. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 119. 286. 589. 931. 1234. 1698. 2258. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 410. 750. 270. 200. 430. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 121. 291. 585. 911. 1210. 1627. 2174. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 410. 1 STATION NAME: Illinois River at Valley City, IL STATION NUMBER: 05586100 DRAINAGE AREA: 26744.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19941231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 245 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 245 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 27852. 3330. 7512. 10573. 21300. 42450. 57060. 120000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 25319. 1330. 7200. 10200. 18300. 34450. 54500. 120000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.7694E+01 + 4.9220E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.8431E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.6837E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.5473E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.169 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 89.20 ( 46 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.7694E+01 + 4.9220E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.8431E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.6837E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.5473E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.169 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.7633E+01 + 4.9320E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.8532E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.6348E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.5561E-01 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Illinois River at Valley City, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05586100 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 330. 610. 210. 150. 340. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 30. 9. 8. 17. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 81. 220. 477. 757. 1006. 1325. 1708. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 320. 600. 210. 150. 330. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 80. 217. 469. 744. 990. 1307. 1693. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 320. 590. 210. 150. 330. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 81. 217. 467. 735. 974. 1280. 1652. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 310. 1 STATION NAME: Illinois River at Valley City, IL STATION NUMBER: 05586100 DRAINAGE AREA: 26744.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19941231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 101 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 98 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1979 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 31168. 3330. 7380. 10900. 26600. 46700. 57780. 120000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 25319. 1330. 7200. 10200. 18300. 34450. 54500. 120000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.3609E+02 + 9.5727E-01 LN(FLOW) + 2.3817E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.7487E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 6.8516E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.707 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 23.65 ( 17 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.129 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.3385E+02 + 9.4708E-01 LN(FLOW) + 2.2826E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.7175E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 6.7330E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.691 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.3285E+02 + 8.8222E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.9861E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.6644E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 6.6474E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Illinois River at Valley City, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05586100 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 16. 24. 6. 8. 24. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 2. 4. 1. 1. 4. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 5. 10. 20. 33. 50. 85. 112. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 15. 23. 5. 8. 23. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 5. 10. 20. 32. 47. 82. 109. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 14. 21. 6. 8. 21. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 5. 10. 18. 28. 42. 68. 88. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 9.8 1 STATION NAME: Illinois River at Valley City, IL STATION NUMBER: 05586100 DRAINAGE AREA: 26744.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19941231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 223 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 223 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 25311. 3330. 7314. 10000. 18500. 34300. 51280. 120000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 25319. 1330. 7200. 10200. 18300. 34450. 54500. 120000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.7590E+01 + 2.7765E+00 LN(FLOW) - 9.4089E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.2837E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.143 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 71.37 ( 41 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.002 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.7590E+01 + 2.7765E+00 LN(FLOW) - 9.4089E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.2837E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.143 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.1484E+01 + 2.2593E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.6668E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.8527E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Illinois River at Valley City, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05586100 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 23. 35. 20. 15. 22. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 11. 19. 31. 45. 54. 71. 81. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 23. 35. 20. 15. 21. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 11. 19. 31. 44. 53. 70. 81. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 23. 36. 20. 15. 22. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 10. 18. 32. 46. 55. 75. 88. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 23. 1 STATION NAME: Illinois River at Valley City, IL STATION NUMBER: 05586100 DRAINAGE AREA: 26744.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (measured as Dissolved Orthophosphate) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19941231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 80 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 80 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1982 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 32752. 3330. 7458. 12325. 27600. 50838. 59100. 120000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 25319. 1330. 7200. 10200. 18300. 34450. 54500. 120000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.5688E-01 + 1.0024E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6918E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.4436E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.125 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 29.31 ( 13 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.006 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.5688E-01 + 1.0024E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6918E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.4436E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.125 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.2395E-01 + 9.5714E-01 LN(FLOW) - 1.5443E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.0823E-01 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Illinois River at Valley City, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05586100 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 9. 13. 7. 8. 11. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 7. 13. 19. 23. 34. 57. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 9. 12. 7. 8. 11. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 7. 13. 19. 23. 34. 56. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 9. 12. 7. 7. 10. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 7. 12. 18. 22. 31. 50. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 8.5 1 STATION NAME: Illinois River at Valley City, IL STATION NUMBER: 05586100 DRAINAGE AREA: 26744.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19941231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 314 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 314 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1992 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 30702. 2820. 7570. 11675. 26800. 42208. 65817. 120000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 25319. 1330. 7200. 10200. 18300. 34450. 54500. 120000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 9.9655E+01 + 6.2046E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.4118E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.4753E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.2672E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 6.0676E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.617 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 68.58 ( 59 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.184 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 9.9655E+01 + 6.2046E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.4118E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.4753E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.2672E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 6.0676E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.617 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 9.3823E+01 + 4.6373E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6384E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 4.0259E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.6480E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 5.3758E-02 DECTIME WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Illinois River at Valley City, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05586100 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 26000. 58000. 21000. 8500. 19000. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1900. 5400. 1700. 850. 1900. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 11. 170. 268. 392. 578. 713. 888. 954. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 40. 5250. 14511. 33478. 70095. 101054. 145256. 186235. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 27000. 58000. 21000. 8600. 20000. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 13. 172. 271. 397. 584. 722. 899. 966. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 47. 5312. 14644. 33777. 70838. 102126. 147624. 190885. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 27000. 60000. 19000. 8300. 21000. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 23. 174. 275. 388. 586. 711. 873. 912. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 81. 5295. 14132. 33373. 70101. 101734. 159232. 213916. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 26000. 1 STATION NAME: Illinois River at Valley City, IL STATION NUMBER: 05586100 DRAINAGE AREA: 26744.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19941231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 179 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 179 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26621. 5020. 7800. 10450. 19600. 40100. 52050. 120000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 25319. 1330. 7200. 10200. 18300. 34450. 54500. 120000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.4306E+01 + 1.3992E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.8877E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.7304E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.7951E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 1.4984E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.041 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 39.09 ( 32 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.181 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.4306E+01 + 1.3992E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.8877E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.7304E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.7951E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 1.4984E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.041 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.4206E+01 + 1.3995E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.8378E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.3572E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.5352E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 1.4901E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Illinois River at Valley City, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05586100 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3000. 4400. 2200. 2000. 3400. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 51. 110. 56. 53. 87. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 23. 41. 52. 61. 70. 76. 90. 101. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 283. 1604. 2652. 4047. 5328. 6340. 7380. 9235. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3000. 4400. 2200. 2000. 3400. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 23. 41. 52. 61. 70. 76. 90. 101. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 289. 1604. 2652. 4047. 5329. 6343. 7386. 9256. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3000. 4300. 2300. 2000. 3300. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 24. 41. 52. 61. 69. 73. 87. 96. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 296. 1623. 2645. 4005. 5342. 6209. 7252. 9061. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2900. 1 STATION NAME: Illinois River at Valley City, IL STATION NUMBER: 05586100 DRAINAGE AREA: 26744.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silica (The values represented here are for SiO2. Values for loads and concentrations have been converted to represent elemental Si. Si = 0.46744 * SiO2 ) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19941231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 103 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 103 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1974 TO 1993 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 26345. 5310. 7374. 9500. 17700. 40400. 51080. 120000. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 25319. 1330. 7200. 10200. 18300. 34450. 54500. 120000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.9428E+01 + 5.3780E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.0038E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 6.3707E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.7311E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.5115E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.236 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 43.23 ( 17 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.9428E+01 + 5.3780E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.0038E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 6.3707E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.7311E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.5115E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.236 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.9415E+01 + 5.4058E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.0161E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 8.7601E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.7555E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.5135E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Illinois River at Valley City, IL (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05586100 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 420. 720. 260. 230. 460. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 37. 71. 26. 28. 55. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 104. 273. 610. 939. 1252. 1948. 2420. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 410. 700. 250. 220. 460. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 102. 268. 600. 923. 1231. 1927. 2422. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 400. 620. 260. 250. 450. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 108. 264. 578. 892. 1140. 1770. 2582. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 430.