1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Sheily Dock Co. upstream of Lock and Dam 2 STATION NUMBER: UM-826 DRAINAGE AREA: 37056.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19750101 TO 19980817 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 263 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 263 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15589. 300. 3180. 5600. 9200. 21800. 36920. 72300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15711. 200. 3800. 6000. 10300. 21000. 35900. 121900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.1453E+01 - 8.3003E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0741E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.1124E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.149 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 60.42 ( 49 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.127 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.1453E+01 - 8.3003E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0741E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.1124E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.149 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.5607E+01 - 1.2681E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.3194E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.4169E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Sheily Dock Co. upstream of Lock and Dam 2 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-826 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 210. 380. 230. 130. 69. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 9. 20. 10. 4. 3. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 12. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 55. 102. 248. 523. 728. 1267. 3786. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 210. 390. 240. 130. 69. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 12. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 56. 103. 250. 526. 733. 1277. 3837. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 220. 410. 250. 130. 69. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 14. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 55. 103. 254. 557. 789. 1411. 4732. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 200. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Sheily Dock Co. upstream of Lock and Dam 2 STATION NUMBER: UM-826 DRAINAGE AREA: 37056.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19750101 TO 19980817 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 280 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 279 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15767. 300. 3300. 5800. 9400. 22250. 37090. 72300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15711. 200. 3800. 6000. 10300. 21000. 35900. 121900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.8553E+01 + 2.2745E-01 LN(FLOW) + 7.6433E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.1403E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.1589E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 5.0930E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.796 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 66.79 ( 53 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.096 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.8414E+01 + 2.3357E-01 LN(FLOW) + 7.6100E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.1754E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.1469E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 5.0846E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.793 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.8294E+01 + 2.1182E-01 LN(FLOW) + 7.5275E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.0956E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 9.8325E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 5.0927E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Sheily Dock Co. upstream of Lock and Dam 2 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-826 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 190. 420. 190. 100. 47. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 21. 58. 23. 13. 6. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 26. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 23. 64. 192. 535. 819. 1543. 8541. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 190. 410. 190. 100. 45. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 26. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 22. 62. 185. 517. 792. 1501. 8539. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 190. 420. 200. 87. 41. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 26. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 21. 60. 183. 528. 812. 1539. 8422. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 120. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Sheily Dock Co. upstream of Lock and Dam 2 STATION NUMBER: UM-826 DRAINAGE AREA: 37056.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19750101 TO 19980817 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 280 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 277 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15767. 300. 3300. 5800. 9400. 22250. 37090. 72300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15711. 200. 3800. 6000. 10300. 21000. 35900. 121900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.8444E+02 - 3.1734E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.7171E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.4203E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.6438E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.8439E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.274 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 66.62 ( 53 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.099 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.8364E+02 - 3.1054E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.6760E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.4403E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.6229E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.8049E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.272 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.8415E+02 - 3.8858E-01 LN(FLOW) + 5.1873E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.2089E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.2604E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.8160E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Sheily Dock Co. upstream of Lock and Dam 2 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-826 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 15. 23. 12. 11. 13. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 6. 12. 19. 28. 37. 60. 117. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 15. 23. 12. 11. 13. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 6. 12. 19. 28. 37. 60. 117. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 15. 23. 12. 11. 12. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 6. 12. 18. 28. 38. 61. 123. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 18. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Sheily Dock Co. upstream of Lock and Dam 2 STATION NUMBER: UM-826 DRAINAGE AREA: 37056.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19750101 TO 19980817 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 263 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 263 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15375. 300. 3180. 5600. 9200. 21200. 36560. 72300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15711. 200. 3800. 6000. 10300. 21000. 35900. 121900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.1264E+01 - 2.3823E-01 LN(FLOW) + 5.6744E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.7529E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.2415E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 7.2232E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.141 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 89.98 ( 49 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.1264E+01 - 2.3823E-01 LN(FLOW) + 5.6744E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.7529E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.2415E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 7.2232E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.141 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.0671E+01 - 1.1241E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.0427E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.9469E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.6152E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 9.9214E-03 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Sheily Dock Co. upstream of Lock and Dam 2 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-826 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 18. 13. 8. 5. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 5. 7. 15. 24. 31. 46. 77. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 18. 13. 8. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 5. 7. 14. 24. 31. 45. 77. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 18. 13. 8. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 5. 7. 14. 25. 32. 51. 93. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 11. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Sheily Dock Co. upstream of Lock and Dam 2 STATION NUMBER: UM-826 DRAINAGE AREA: 37056.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Solids LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19750101 TO 19980817 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 263 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 262 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15582. 300. 3180. 5600. 9200. 21800. 36920. 72300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15711. 200. 3800. 6000. 10300. 21000. 35900. 121900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 8.7667E+00 - 4.9641E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.1207E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.8309E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 8.9550E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.454 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 53.97 ( 49 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.290 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 8.7570E+00 - 4.9354E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.1189E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.8221E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 8.9436E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.453 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 9.8578E+00 - 7.1755E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.2291E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 3.5687E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 8.4332E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Sheily Dock Co. upstream of Lock and Dam 2 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-826 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2600. 4200. 4800. 1100. 160. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 200. 420. 390. 94. 13. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 9. 25. 53. 85. 103. 148. 315. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 180. 606. 2890. 7477. 10833. 24075. 81702. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2600. 4200. 4800. 1100. 160. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 9. 25. 53. 84. 103. 148. 316. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 180. 602. 2870. 7414. 10753. 23977. 82093. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2500. 3900. 4600. 1100. 170. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 10. 26. 52. 80. 97. 141. 303. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 9. 188. 619. 2799. 6939. 10111. 22385. 78797. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2200. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Sheily Dock Co. upstream of Lock and Dam 2 STATION NUMBER: UM-826 DRAINAGE AREA: 37056.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19750101 TO 19801231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 68 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 68 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1980 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 11379. 300. 1380. 3550. 7150. 11475. 31930. 72300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 11628. 200. 1630. 4700. 7100. 14900. 27140. 79400. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.2506E+02 - 1.0404E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.3176E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.1675E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.2656E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 6.8967E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.048 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 25.10 ( 10 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.005 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.2506E+02 - 1.0404E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.3176E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.1675E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.2656E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 6.8967E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.048 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.2813E+02 - 8.4499E-01 LN(FLOW) + 8.5211E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 5.3822E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0943E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 7.2138E-02 DECTIME WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Sheily Dock Co. upstream of Lock and Dam 2 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-826 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 700. 1100. 660. 540. 490. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 29. 63. 34. 32. 26. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 13. 21. 27. 34. 45. 52. 68. 120. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 65. 391. 544. 855. 1331. 1802. 2695. 3444. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 700. 1100. 660. 540. 490. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 13. 21. 27. 34. 45. 52. 68. 122. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 66. 391. 544. 855. 1332. 1804. 2702. 3461. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 710. 1100. 680. 550. 460. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 14. 21. 26. 33. 46. 60. 73. 207. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 112. 380. 528. 854. 1384. 1838. 2995. 3990. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 650.