1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 2 STATION NUMBER: UM-815 DRAINAGE AREA: 37056.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19830101 TO 19980817 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 98 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 98 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1983 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 19797. 1400. 4270. 7150. 15000. 27975. 44750. 72100. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 17506. 500. 4200. 7000. 11900. 24050. 38500. 121900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.3022E+01 - 4.6785E-01 LN(FLOW) + 8.6417E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.1360E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.3531E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 5.1340E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.119 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 6.95 ( 16 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.974 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.3022E+01 - 4.6785E-01 LN(FLOW) + 8.6417E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.1360E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.3531E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 5.1340E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.119 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.2776E+01 - 4.4655E-01 LN(FLOW) + 8.5346E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 5.2614E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.9436E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 5.1149E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 2 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-815 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 250. 480. 270. 140. 86. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 14. 37. 17. 10. 7. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 14. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 71. 132. 301. 628. 798. 1323. 4571. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 250. 480. 270. 140. 86. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 9. 14. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 71. 133. 301. 631. 802. 1333. 4683. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 240. 460. 280. 150. 86. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 13. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 71. 135. 298. 615. 777. 1277. 4406. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 230. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 2 STATION NUMBER: UM-815 DRAINAGE AREA: 37056.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19830101 TO 19980817 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 115 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 115 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1983 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 19608. 1400. 4360. 7200. 14000. 26700. 44180. 72100. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 17506. 500. 4200. 7000. 11900. 24050. 38500. 121900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.0405E+02 - 7.9929E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.1733E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 5.6675E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.320 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 21.33 ( 20 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.378 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.0405E+02 - 7.9929E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.1733E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 5.6675E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.320 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.0387E+02 - 8.0281E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.1888E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 5.6523E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 2 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-815 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 160. 320. 190. 85. 38. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 14. 35. 16. 5. 3. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 13. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 31. 67. 181. 430. 562. 1018. 4383. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 160. 320. 190. 85. 38. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 14. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 31. 67. 180. 428. 560. 1027. 4579. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 160. 330. 190. 85. 38. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 15. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 30. 66. 183. 440. 578. 1078. 4869. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 150. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 2 STATION NUMBER: UM-815 DRAINAGE AREA: 37056.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19830101 TO 19980817 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 115 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 112 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1983 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 19608. 1400. 4360. 7200. 14000. 26700. 44180. 72100. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 17506. 500. 4200. 7000. 11900. 24050. 38500. 121900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.0576E+02 - 1.6472E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.2518E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.5743E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.7296E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.4670E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.524 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 22.93 ( 20 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.292 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.0187E+02 - 1.5099E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.1790E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.6041E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.5881E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.4507E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.515 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.0226E+02 - 1.4079E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.1565E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.5651E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.0141E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.4563E-01 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 2 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-815 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 13. 22. 7. 8. 13. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 3. 1. 1. 2. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 7. 15. 29. 41. 86. 142. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 13. 22. 7. 8. 13. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 7. 15. 29. 40. 85. 140. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 13. 23. 7. 9. 13. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 7. 16. 30. 42. 93. 156. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 9.8 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 2 STATION NUMBER: UM-815 DRAINAGE AREA: 37056.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19830101 TO 19980817 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 98 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 97 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1983 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 19797. 1400. 4270. 7150. 15000. 27975. 44750. 72100. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 17506. 500. 4200. 7000. 11900. 24050. 38500. 121900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6765E+01 - 2.3386E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.6728E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 6.5854E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.9442E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.239 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 64.40 ( 16 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6719E+01 - 2.3283E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.6673E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 6.5274E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.9224E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.237 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6637E+01 - 2.2952E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.6375E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.2706E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.9944E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 2 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-815 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 13. 20. 16. 9. 5. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 5. 8. 17. 27. 35. 57. 118. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 13. 20. 17. 9. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 5. 8. 17. 28. 35. 58. 123. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 12. 18. 17. 10. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 5. 8. 17. 26. 33. 54. 109. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 13. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 2 STATION NUMBER: UM-815 DRAINAGE AREA: 37056.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Solids LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19830101 TO 19980817 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 98 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 98 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1983 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 19797. 1400. 4270. 7150. 15000. 27975. 44750. 72100. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 17506. 500. 4200. 7000. 11900. 24050. 38500. 121900. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.4594E+01 - 1.5165E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.5578E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 4.2344E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 7.3650E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.598 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 35.65 ( 16 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.003 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.4594E+01 - 1.5165E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.5578E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 4.2344E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 7.3650E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.598 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.4389E+01 - 1.5532E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.6186E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 5.0703E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.7378E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 2 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-815 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2800. 3900. 5300. 1600. 250. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 350. 640. 730. 250. 43. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 9. 14. 34. 58. 80. 97. 142. 241. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 35. 302. 963. 3577. 7253. 10154. 22563. 62569. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3300. 4700. 6300. 1900. 300. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 11. 17. 41. 69. 96. 116. 171. 302. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 47. 361. 1148. 4257. 8674. 12116. 27473. 78495. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3600. 4900. 6800. 2200. 320. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 18. 42. 72. 103. 125. 195. 353. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 45. 380. 1195. 4531. 9310. 13188. 30944. 91773. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2500. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 2 STATION NUMBER: UM-815 DRAINAGE AREA: 37056.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19600101 TO 19771231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 104 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 104 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1960 TO 1977 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 12606. 300. 2150. 4100. 6900. 15800. 35750. 76800. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 12754. 200. 2800. 4500. 7500. 16100. 29500. 172800. WARNING: THE RATIO OF LARGEST PREDICTION DATA SET STEAMFLOW AND LARGEST CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW EXCEEDS 2.0 MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.5544E+01 + 6.0108E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.1849E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.8830E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 4.7523E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.094 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 16.34 ( 17 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.500 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.5544E+01 + 6.0108E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.1849E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.8830E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 4.7523E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.094 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.5477E+01 + 5.5742E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.4570E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 7.7587E-04 COS(DECTIME) + 4.7688E-02 DECTIME WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 2 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-815 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 440. 690. 420. 340. 310. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 16. 37. 19. 19. 17. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 12. 16. 21. 28. 33. 55. 90. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 48. 224. 375. 541. 841. 1043. 1429. 2463. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 440. 690. 420. 340. 310. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 12. 16. 21. 28. 33. 55. 90. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 49. 224. 374. 541. 841. 1043. 1429. 2468. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 430. 680. 430. 320. 290. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 12. 16. 21. 28. 36. 56. 106. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 57. 225. 368. 534. 825. 1015. 1362. 2235. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 470.