1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Newport, MN STATION NUMBER: UM 831.0 DRAINAGE AREA: 36800.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19800101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 234 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 234 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1980 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15684. 500. 4084. 6275. 10400. 21925. 36250. 71800. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 16383. 500. 4200. 6500. 11100. 22300. 36700. 96300. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.7358E+00 + 6.6425E-02 LN(FLOW) + 5.6367E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.102 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 54.93 ( 43 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.105 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 6.7358E+00 + 6.6425E-02 LN(FLOW) + 5.6367E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.102 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 9.0931E+00 - 4.5004E-01 LN(FLOW) + 8.4261E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Newport, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 831.0 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 190. 320. 220. 140. 73. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 6. 13. 7. 3. 2. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 61. 109. 245. 450. 597. 890. 1580. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 190. 320. 220. 140. 73. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 61. 109. 245. 451. 598. 891. 1588. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 190. 330. 220. 140. 72. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 60. 107. 244. 462. 624. 956. 1788. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 190. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Newport, MN STATION NUMBER: UM 831.0 DRAINAGE AREA: 36800.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19800101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 404 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 404 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1980 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 16429. 500. 4184. 6525. 11150. 22350. 36900. 71800. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 16383. 500. 4200. 6500. 11100. 22300. 36700. 96300. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.5870E+01 - 6.8286E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0741E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.6849E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0300E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.2428E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.290 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 85.31 ( 77 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.242 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.5870E+01 - 6.8286E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0741E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.6849E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.0300E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.2428E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.290 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.5748E+01 - 6.5592E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.0518E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 4.1760E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.3782E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 3.2352E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Newport, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 831.0 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 130. 250. 150. 87. 44. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 6. 15. 8. 5. 2. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 30. 63. 157. 363. 506. 796. 1837. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 130. 250. 150. 86. 43. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 30. 62. 155. 359. 501. 791. 1834. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 130. 250. 150. 84. 42. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 30. 62. 157. 362. 500. 784. 1849. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 130. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Newport, MN STATION NUMBER: UM 831.0 DRAINAGE AREA: 36800.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19800101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 434 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 422 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1980 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 16489. 500. 4200. 6675. 11350. 22450. 36250. 71800. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 16383. 500. 4200. 6500. 11100. 22300. 36700. 96300. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.5579E+02 + 6.1690E-01 LN(FLOW) + 3.3641E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.7928E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.2665E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.391 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 147.01 ( 83 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.5380E+02 + 6.1877E-01 LN(FLOW) + 3.3607E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.7232E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.2566E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.383 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.5425E+02 + 6.6256E-01 LN(FLOW) + 3.3129E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.0947E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.2606E-01 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Newport, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 831.0 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 14. 22. 8. 10. 16. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 6. 9. 20. 30. 40. 60. 86. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 14. 22. 8. 10. 16. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 6. 10. 20. 30. 40. 60. 86. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 15. 23. 8. 11. 16. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 6. 10. 21. 30. 41. 63. 93. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 12. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Newport, MN STATION NUMBER: UM 831.0 DRAINAGE AREA: 36800.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19800101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 430 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 429 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1980 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 16584. 500. 4200. 6700. 11400. 22650. 36530. 71800. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 16383. 500. 4200. 6500. 11100. 22300. 36700. 96300. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.9697E+00 - 1.2673E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.1302E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.0787E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.129 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 108.33 ( 83 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.032 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.0006E+01 - 1.2659E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.1294E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.0802E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.128 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.6849E+00 - 1.3154E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.1343E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.0868E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Newport, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 831.0 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 16. 12. 8. 5. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 5. 7. 13. 23. 29. 41. 76. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 16. 12. 8. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 5. 7. 13. 23. 29. 40. 76. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 16. 12. 8. 5. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 5. 7. 13. 22. 28. 38. 70. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 10. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Newport, MN STATION NUMBER: UM 831.0 DRAINAGE AREA: 36800.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (measured as Orthophosphate) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19800101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 317 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 317 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1980 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 16944. 500. 4200. 6750. 11800. 23950. 37320. 71800. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 16383. 500. 4200. 6500. 11100. 22300. 36700. 96300. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.2072E+01 - 7.9065E-01 LN(FLOW) + 8.0904E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 8.6403E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.4529E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 3.0807E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.196 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 90.92 ( 60 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.006 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.2072E+01 - 7.9065E-01 LN(FLOW) + 8.0904E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 8.6403E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.4529E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 3.0807E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.196 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.7268E+01 - 2.2577E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.5609E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.6519E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.4663E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 3.7007E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Newport, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 831.0 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 5.10 7.00 5.70 4.70 3.00 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.16 0.33 0.24 0.21 0.13 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 16. 29. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 5.10 7.00 5.80 4.70 3.00 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 16. 29. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 5.10 7.30 5.60 4.30 3.00 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 18. 35. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 5.4 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Newport, MN STATION NUMBER: UM 831.0 DRAINAGE AREA: 36800.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Solids LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19800101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 402 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 402 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1980 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 16400. 500. 4200. 6575. 11050. 22250. 36940. 71800. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 16383. 500. 4200. 6500. 11100. 22300. 36700. 96300. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.4967E-01 + 1.4958E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.1225E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 9.0115E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.411 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 109.57 ( 77 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.009 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.4967E-01 + 1.4958E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.1225E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 9.0115E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.411 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.2081E-01 + 1.5288E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.9294E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 9.2030E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Newport, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 831.0 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2800. 3900. 5500. 1500. 230. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 150. 250. 330. 92. 13. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 13. 33. 65. 95. 111. 149. 207. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 13. 271. 954. 3625. 7755. 10640. 20347. 53776. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2900. 4100. 5700. 1500. 240. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 14. 34. 67. 97. 114. 154. 214. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 13. 279. 982. 3734. 7985. 10964. 20965. 55496. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3000. 4000. 6100. 1600. 230. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 13. 35. 69. 102. 121. 167. 233. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 11. 274. 1005. 3856. 8125. 11260. 22291. 60603. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2500.