1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at St. Paul, MN STATION NUMBER: UM-840 DRAINAGE AREA: 36800.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19730101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 264 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 264 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15032. 1020. 3080. 5525. 8810. 20375. 35000. 70700. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15318. 723. 3640. 5698. 10000. 20600. 35000. 104000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.5349E+01 + 6.8551E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.1320E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.3837E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.223 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 44.35 ( 49 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.662 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.5349E+01 + 6.8551E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.1320E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.3837E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.223 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.7413E+01 + 6.3930E-01 LN(FLOW) + 4.2714E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.5025E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at St. Paul, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-840 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 210. 410. 260. 130. 59. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 11. 26. 14. 5. 2. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 13. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 37. 87. 247. 578. 885. 1594. 3518. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 210. 410. 260. 130. 59. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 13. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 37. 87. 247. 580. 888. 1604. 3563. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 210. 410. 250. 130. 59. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 37. 87. 244. 567. 864. 1553. 3463. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 200. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at St. Paul, MN STATION NUMBER: UM-840 DRAINAGE AREA: 36800.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19730101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 274 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 270 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15206. 1020. 3245. 5563. 8925. 20825. 36100. 70700. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15318. 723. 3640. 5698. 10000. 20600. 35000. 104000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.0238E+01 + 2.1642E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.8898E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.2364E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.0730E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.545 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 104.38 ( 51 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.9172E+01 + 2.1605E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.9026E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.1716E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.0213E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.528 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.9488E+01 + 2.0243E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.4207E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.5935E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 2.1066E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at St. Paul, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-840 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 280. 680. 230. 130. 60. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 40. 110. 38. 24. 10. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 25. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 16. 65. 224. 732. 1450. 3130. 6205. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 220. 550. 190. 100. 48. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 21. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 13. 52. 181. 595. 1177. 2539. 5059. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 200. 480. 180. 83. 41. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 14. 49. 164. 520. 1020. 2128. 4228. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 130. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at St. Paul, MN STATION NUMBER: UM-840 DRAINAGE AREA: 36800.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19730101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 293 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 253 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 14844. 1020. 3286. 5470. 8540. 19850. 35020. 70700. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15318. 723. 3640. 5698. 10000. 20600. 35000. 104000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.0115E+02 - 4.2425E-01 LN(FLOW) + 6.1267E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.0847E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.3125E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 4.6997E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.456 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 107.58 ( 55 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1769E+02 - 3.2001E-01 LN(FLOW) + 5.6204E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.0519E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.7341E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 5.5582E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.427 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1209E+02 + 3.4440E-01 LN(FLOW) + 2.0502E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.6228E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.7883E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 5.4281E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at St. Paul, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-840 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 15. 6. 5. 7. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 6. 10. 16. 22. 35. 55. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 9. 16. 7. 6. 7. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 7. 11. 17. 25. 40. 66. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 9. 15. 7. 6. 7. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 4. 7. 11. 17. 23. 36. 58. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 8.2 - 9.1 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at St. Paul, MN STATION NUMBER: UM-840 DRAINAGE AREA: 36800.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19730101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 292 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 292 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 14904. 1020. 3272. 5505. 8545. 19925. 35380. 70700. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15318. 723. 3640. 5698. 10000. 20600. 35000. 104000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.5122E+01 - 3.3941E-01 LN(FLOW) + 7.9886E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.4453E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.5405E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.4942E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.156 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 100.41 ( 55 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.5122E+01 - 3.3941E-01 LN(FLOW) + 7.9886E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.4453E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.5405E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.4942E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.156 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.5252E+01 - 3.6600E-01 LN(FLOW) + 8.0251E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.1834E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.8182E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.4939E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at St. Paul, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-840 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 18. 13. 6. 3. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 5. 13. 26. 36. 68. 121. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 19. 13. 6. 3. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 5. 13. 26. 36. 69. 123. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 18. 13. 6. 3. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 3. 5. 13. 26. 36. 67. 121. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 11. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at St. Paul, MN STATION NUMBER: UM-840 DRAINAGE AREA: 36800.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Solids LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19730101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 291 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 290 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 14929. 1020. 3258. 5500. 8550. 20000. 35420. 70700. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 15318. 723. 3640. 5698. 10000. 20600. 35000. 104000. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.2262E+00 + 1.6514E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.5786E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 9.8234E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.593 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 99.10 ( 55 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.2204E+00 + 1.6509E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.5693E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 9.8105E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.591 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.3331E+00 + 1.6552E+00 LN(FLOW) - 3.7345E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 9.9291E-01 COS(DECTIME) WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Mississippi River at St. Paul, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-840 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3400. 5400. 6800. 1400. 210. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 270. 490. 590. 140. 19. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 12. 31. 72. 120. 145. 201. 348. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 8. 230. 736. 3850. 10276. 14857. 30462. 97602. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 4000. 6200. 7800. 1600. 250. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 14. 36. 83. 138. 166. 230. 400. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 9. 264. 845. 4418. 11791. 17049. 34985. 112333. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 4000. 5800. 8200. 1800. 240. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 14. 38. 84. 141. 173. 246. 412. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 9. 261. 896. 4488. 11575. 16768. 34243. 115345. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 3500. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at St. Paul, MN STATION NUMBER: UM-840 DRAINAGE AREA: 36800.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19730101 TO 19801231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 87 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 87 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1973 TO 1980 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 11007. 1020. 1832. 4710. 6250. 11300. 30260. 66900. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 11815. 723. 2950. 4988. 7055. 15300. 27110. 78100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.5114E+02 - 6.6776E-01 LN(FLOW) + 8.4132E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.4498E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.3748E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 8.2847E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.070 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 14.19 ( 14 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.435 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.5114E+02 - 6.6776E-01 LN(FLOW) + 8.4132E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.4498E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.3748E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 8.2847E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.070 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.5179E+02 - 7.9444E-01 LN(FLOW) + 9.1473E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 9.5909E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 9.2460E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 8.3453E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at St. Paul, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM-840 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 540. 1000. 510. 340. 300. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 24. 65. 27. 21. 15. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 14. 18. 21. 25. 27. 31. 34. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 62. 238. 332. 621. 1151. 1567. 3212. 4825. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 540. 1000. 510. 340. 300. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 14. 18. 21. 25. 27. 31. 34. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 63. 238. 332. 622. 1151. 1569. 3232. 4863. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 540. 980. 510. 360. 300. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 11. 14. 17. 21. 25. 27. 31. 34. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 67. 240. 333. 623. 1141. 1549. 3186. 4830. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 510.