1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 11 STATION NUMBER: M582.5B DRAINAGE AREA: 81600.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980819 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 127 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 127 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 65521. 21728. 31148. 40683. 53142. 89591. 105683. 217354. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 65514. 14771. 32340. 40142. 53841. 85694. 110940. 240341. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1521E+02 + 5.1674E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.8059E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.1911E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.6634E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 6.8466E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.095 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 29.18 ( 22 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.140 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1521E+02 + 5.1674E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.8059E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.1911E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.6634E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 6.8466E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.095 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.0972E+02 + 3.0989E+00 LN(FLOW) - 8.6606E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.9819E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.6177E-02 COS(DECTIME) - 5.9993E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 11 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M582.5B LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 460. 770. 460. 300. 260. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 16. 39. 22. 15. 13. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 52. 251. 341. 607. 910. 1149. 1490. 1592. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 460. 770. 450. 300. 260. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 53. 250. 340. 605. 909. 1148. 1495. 1612. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 460. 770. 480. 300. 250. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 60. 245. 329. 611. 919. 1220. 1605. 1941. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 450. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 11 STATION NUMBER: M582.5B DRAINAGE AREA: 81600.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980819 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 130 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 128 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 65569. 21728. 31278. 40728. 53128. 89675. 109164. 217354. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 65514. 14771. 32340. 40142. 53841. 85694. 110940. 240341. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 8.9069E+01 + 1.6738E+01 LN(FLOW) - 6.9681E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 4.4802E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.6252E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.8039E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.586 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 56.03 ( 23 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 8.8808E+01 + 1.6397E+01 LN(FLOW) - 6.8130E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 4.4292E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.6165E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.6970E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.577 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 8.9457E+01 + 1.6537E+01 LN(FLOW) - 6.9033E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.1401E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.3767E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.7441E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 11 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M582.5B LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 360. 690. 270. 220. 250. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 33. 86. 31. 28. 30. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 15. 173. 282. 495. 792. 877. 1168. 1288. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 340. 640. 250. 200. 230. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 15. 160. 259. 456. 735. 808. 1100. 1197. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 320. 560. 270. 220. 200. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 14. 169. 254. 443. 643. 701. 944. 1004. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 310. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 11 STATION NUMBER: M582.5B DRAINAGE AREA: 81600.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980819 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 130 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 122 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 65569. 21728. 31278. 40728. 53128. 89675. 109164. 217354. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 65514. 14771. 32340. 40142. 53841. 85694. 110940. 240341. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.0092E+03 + 1.7347E+01 LN(FLOW) - 7.1713E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.9960E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.1008E-03 COS(DECTIME) + 4.5850E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.510 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 41.65 ( 23 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.010 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.6597E+02 + 1.7263E+01 LN(FLOW) - 7.1450E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.9173E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.8239E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 4.3714E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.429 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.6528E+02 + 1.7433E+01 LN(FLOW) - 7.2396E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.7920E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.0757E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 4.3646E-01 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 11 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M582.5B LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 29. 58. 28. 12. 13. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 5. 13. 6. 3. 3. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 8. 17. 35. 69. 107. 177. 206. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 25. 49. 24. 11. 11. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 7. 15. 30. 57. 89. 146. 177. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 24. 44. 24. 12. 11. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 8. 16. 29. 53. 80. 129. 152. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 18. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 11 STATION NUMBER: M582.5B DRAINAGE AREA: 81600.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980819 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 119 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 119 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 65429. 21728. 30662. 40092. 53566. 89927. 104688. 217354. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 65514. 14771. 32340. 40142. 53841. 85694. 110940. 240341. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6315E+02 + 6.8958E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.5269E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.0386E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.1821E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 9.9042E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.127 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 33.20 ( 20 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.032 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6315E+02 + 6.8958E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.5269E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.0386E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.1821E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 9.9042E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.127 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6255E+02 + 6.7750E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.4643E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 4.4379E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.1636E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 9.8447E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 11 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M582.5B LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 30. 45. 40. 21. 11. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 3. 2. 1. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 12. 22. 40. 62. 80. 124. 150. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 30. 45. 40. 22. 11. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 12. 22. 41. 63. 81. 126. 154. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 30. 44. 41. 22. 11. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 12. 22. 41. 64. 81. 130. 159. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 30. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 11 STATION NUMBER: M582.5B DRAINAGE AREA: 81600.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980819 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 91 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 80 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 62258. 21728. 30799. 39672. 52598. 84548. 96001. 217354. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 65514. 14771. 32340. 40142. 53841. 85694. 110940. 240341. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.2693E+02 + 4.1986E+01 LN(FLOW) - 1.8269E+00 LN(FLOW)**2 - 4.8523E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.6980E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.2973E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.802 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 53.34 ( 15 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.9547E+02 + 3.5022E+01 LN(FLOW) - 1.5114E+00 LN(FLOW)**2 - 4.5515E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 3.4823E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.9471E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.626 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.9632E+02 + 3.5225E+01 LN(FLOW) - 1.5334E+00 LN(FLOW)**2 - 3.3105E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.2428E-03 COS(DECTIME) - 1.9479E-01 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 11 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M582.5B LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 10. 9. 10. 17. 5. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 2. 3. 3. 5. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 4. 8. 13. 23. 31. 37. 44. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 8. 8. 13. 4. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 4. 7. 11. 17. 23. 29. 33. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 8. 8. 10. 10. 4. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 26. 27. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 6.4 - 6.5 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 11 STATION NUMBER: M582.5B DRAINAGE AREA: 81600.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980819 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 127 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 127 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 64495. 21728. 31148. 40683. 52701. 88210. 103186. 217354. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 65514. 14771. 32340. 40142. 53841. 85694. 110940. 240341. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6119E+02 + 1.7221E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.1578E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 8.1093E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.2390E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.370 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 23.41 ( 22 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.379 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6119E+02 + 1.7221E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.1578E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 8.1093E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.2390E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.370 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6093E+02 + 1.7275E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.0891E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 6.9567E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.2267E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 11 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M582.5B LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 7800. 10000. 15000. 3900. 900. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 690. 1100. 1600. 390. 82. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 11. 27. 49. 63. 76. 148. 179. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 126. 1304. 4077. 9673. 18250. 25867. 73144. 115708. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 8000. 10000. 15000. 4000. 920. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 11. 27. 50. 64. 78. 151. 184. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 130. 1329. 4150. 9859. 18573. 26391. 74968. 119089. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 7400. 10000. 14000. 4000. 1000. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 12. 26. 46. 59. 71. 135. 164. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 143. 1363. 4069. 9116. 17274. 24350. 66900. 106281. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 6100. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 11 STATION NUMBER: M582.5B DRAINAGE AREA: 81600.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980819 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 127 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 127 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 64277. 21728. 31148. 40683. 52701. 88210. 105683. 217354. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 65514. 14771. 32340. 40142. 53841. 85694. 110940. 240341. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.4475E+00 + 8.9809E-01 LN(FLOW) + 8.1349E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.4628E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.027 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 41.81 ( 22 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.007 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.4475E+00 + 8.9809E-01 LN(FLOW) + 8.1349E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.4628E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.027 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.3301E+00 + 9.0922E-01 LN(FLOW) + 7.4814E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.7651E-02 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 11 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M582.5B LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2500. 3600. 2500. 2000. 1700. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 41. 94. 59. 49. 40. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 18. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 725. 1642. 2015. 3089. 4010. 4904. 6599. 7883. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2500. 3600. 2500. 2000. 1700. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 18. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 726. 1643. 2017. 3092. 4013. 4908. 6607. 7894. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2500. 3600. 2500. 2000. 1700. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 18. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 716. 1641. 2019. 3093. 4022. 4919. 6672. 7958. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2500. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 11 STATION NUMBER: M582.5B DRAINAGE AREA: 81600.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silicon LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19930101 TO 19980819 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 127 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 126 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1993 TO 1998 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 64133. 21728. 31148. 40683. 52701. 88210. 103186. 217354. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 65514. 14771. 32340. 40142. 53841. 85694. 110940. 240341. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.5757E+02 + 1.4617E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.1084E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.1435E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 7.9980E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.609 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 67.38 ( 22 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.5656E+02 + 1.4608E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.0985E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.1268E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 7.9467E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.604 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6348E+02 + 1.1175E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.8140E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.7913E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.0929E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock and Dam 11 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: M582.5B LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 930. 1200. 830. 1000. 660. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 84. 160. 100. 130. 80. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 114. 493. 733. 1179. 1750. 2205. 3437. 4459. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 840. 1100. 750. 920. 590. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 105. 443. 657. 1056. 1570. 1992. 3128. 4065. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 800. 1100. 830. 730. 510. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 147. 478. 649. 993. 1373. 1754. 2562. 3443. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 790.