1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 1 STATION NUMBER: UM 847.7 DRAINAGE AREA: 19686.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 366 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 366 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 8283. 869. 2391. 3910. 6250. 10025. 17650. 46300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9246. 728. 2960. 4320. 7070. 11800. 18800. 50100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.5067E+00 + 5.4580E-01 LN(FLOW) + 3.3966E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 8.2990E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.6568E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 4.9595E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.100 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 75.06 ( 70 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.318 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.5067E+00 + 5.4580E-01 LN(FLOW) + 3.3966E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 8.2990E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.6568E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 4.9595E-03 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.100 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 7.8186E+00 + 1.4430E-01 LN(FLOW) + 5.7852E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 8.5810E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.9341E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 6.4616E-03 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 1 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 847.7 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 40. 70. 38. 31. 21. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 3. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 15. 27. 49. 88. 118. 206. 315. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 40. 70. 38. 31. 21. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 15. 27. 49. 88. 118. 207. 317. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 42. 74. 40. 31. 21. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 15. 27. 50. 92. 125. 229. 361. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 40. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 1 STATION NUMBER: UM 847.7 DRAINAGE AREA: 19686.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 569 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 545 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9090. 869. 2860. 4135. 6770. 11150. 19100. 49400. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9246. 728. 2960. 4320. 7070. 11800. 18800. 50100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.8971E+01 - 1.4959E-01 LN(FLOW) + 9.3095E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.1670E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.4986E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.6506E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.551 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 175.64 (110 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.6790E+01 - 1.5313E-01 LN(FLOW) + 9.2082E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.1107E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.2491E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.5472E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.538 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 6.4345E+01 + 5.5492E-01 LN(FLOW) + 5.1879E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.1668E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.3456E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 3.2694E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 1 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 847.7 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 19. 40. 10. 13. 13. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 3. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 5. 10. 22. 42. 68. 145. 314. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 19. 40. 10. 13. 13. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 5. 10. 22. 43. 68. 146. 315. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 19. 38. 10. 13. 13. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 5. 10. 22. 42. 65. 134. 275. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 16. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 1 STATION NUMBER: UM 847.7 DRAINAGE AREA: 19686.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 609 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 451 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9225. 869. 2910. 4135. 6810. 11300. 19200. 49400. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9246. 728. 2960. 4320. 7070. 11800. 18800. 50100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.1236E+02 - 1.9967E-01 LN(FLOW) + 8.4554E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 4.4321E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.0094E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.0548E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.859 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 221.57 (118 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.6755E+02 - 1.1279E-01 LN(FLOW) + 7.3798E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.5757E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.2216E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.2786E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.768 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.7215E+02 + 7.7548E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.9470E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 3.8095E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.9081E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 8.6900E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 1 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 847.7 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.50 7.10 1.40 2.10 3.20 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.22 0.62 0.10 0.17 0.22 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 30. 68. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.70 7.30 1.90 2.50 3.20 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 27. 57. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.60 6.60 1.70 2.40 3.60 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 23. 43. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 3.3 - 3.4 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 1 STATION NUMBER: UM 847.7 DRAINAGE AREA: 19686.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 607 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 597 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9255. 869. 2904. 4240. 6890. 11300. 19220. 49400. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9246. 728. 2960. 4320. 7070. 11800. 18800. 50100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.9282E+01 + 1.1863E+00 LN(FLOW) - 8.0257E-03 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.4664E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.1018E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.269 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 193.80 (118 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.9337E+01 + 1.1830E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.0675E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.4541E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.1030E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.266 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.8490E+01 + 1.1579E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6801E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 3.9188E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.5461E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 1 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 847.7 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.90 4.90 3.90 1.90 0.89 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.09 0.20 0.14 0.08 0.03 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 17. 26. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.00 5.10 4.00 2.00 0.92 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 27. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 2.90 4.80 3.70 2.00 0.97 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 24. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2.9 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 1 STATION NUMBER: UM 847.7 DRAINAGE AREA: 19686.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (measured as Orthophosphate) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 375 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 348 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1977 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9919. 869. 3396. 4800. 7590. 13000. 19900. 46300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9246. 728. 2960. 4320. 7070. 11800. 18800. 50100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.8303E+01 + 1.3075E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.1637E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.843 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 112.19 ( 72 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.002 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.2120E+01 + 1.2905E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.3464E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.801 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.5858E+01 + 1.2614E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.0122E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 1 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 847.7 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.20 2.10 1.20 0.95 0.56 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.09 0.18 0.08 0.06 0.03 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.30 2.20 1.20 1.00 0.60 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.20 2.10 1.20 0.99 0.60 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1.1 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 1 STATION NUMBER: UM 847.7 DRAINAGE AREA: 19686.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Solids LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 576 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 559 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9257. 869. 2874. 4133. 6835. 11375. 19230. 49400. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9246. 728. 2960. 4320. 7070. 11800. 18800. 50100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 7.9880E+01 - 1.0312E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.3188E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.0962E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 9.4825E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.4325E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.289 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 172.48 (112 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 7.7278E+01 - 1.0444E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.3209E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.0028E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 9.3735E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.2961E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.283 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 7.4702E+01 - 1.5757E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.6383E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 2.1462E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 9.1923E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 3.0572E-02 DECTIME WARNING: MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS 100000 UG/L 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Lock & Dam 1 (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 847.7 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 580. 930. 980. 330. 75. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 22. 49. 40. 15. 3. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 6. 14. 26. 37. 43. 59. 87. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 15. 91. 232. 675. 1508. 2210. 4618. 10743. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 600. 980. 1000. 340. 80. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 7. 15. 28. 38. 45. 61. 90. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 16. 97. 244. 708. 1568. 2305. 4812. 11096. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 620. 1000. 1000. 350. 80. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 3. 7. 15. 27. 38. 46. 64. 103. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 17. 96. 241. 706. 1591. 2410. 5329. 12615. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 520.