1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Anoka, MN STATION NUMBER: UM 871.6 DRAINAGE AREA: 19100.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 342 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 342 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 8305. 869. 2321. 3828. 6250. 10125. 17850. 46300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9246. 728. 2960. 4320. 7070. 11800. 18800. 50100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.2452E+01 + 1.7245E-01 LN(FLOW) + 6.1416E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.0475E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.3542E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 1.8672E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.158 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 53.89 ( 65 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.836 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.2452E+01 + 1.7245E-01 LN(FLOW) + 6.1416E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.0475E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.3542E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 1.8672E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.158 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 3.2068E+01 + 2.6492E-01 LN(FLOW) + 5.6851E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 8.7741E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 1.0280E-02 COS(DECTIME) + 1.8240E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Anoka, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 871.6 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 54. 100. 51. 38. 25. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 2. 5. 2. 2. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 17. 33. 63. 124. 172. 329. 528. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 54. 100. 51. 38. 25. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 17. 32. 63. 124. 172. 330. 530. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 54. 100. 52. 39. 24. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 17. 32. 63. 125. 173. 331. 527. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 51. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Anoka, MN STATION NUMBER: UM 871.6 DRAINAGE AREA: 19100.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 552 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 535 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9189. 869. 2866. 4195. 6850. 11475. 19070. 48500. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9246. 728. 2960. 4320. 7070. 11800. 18800. 50100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.6182E+01 - 5.6004E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.2380E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.3459E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.9867E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 4.5945E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.637 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 158.53 (107 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.4813E+01 - 5.8843E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.2450E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.3215E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.8301E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 4.5360E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.624 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 8.2285E+01 + 1.0154E-01 LN(FLOW) + 8.7701E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.4661E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.8587E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 4.2468E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Anoka, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 871.6 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 31. 68. 19. 21. 16. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 2. 6. 1. 2. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 6. 14. 32. 71. 119. 276. 610. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 31. 67. 19. 21. 16. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 6. 14. 32. 70. 118. 274. 606. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 31. 68. 19. 21. 16. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 6. 14. 33. 73. 120. 271. 588. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 26. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Anoka, MN STATION NUMBER: UM 871.6 DRAINAGE AREA: 19100.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 587 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 432 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9257. 869. 2904. 4180. 6890. 11500. 19200. 48500. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9246. 728. 2960. 4320. 7070. 11800. 18800. 50100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.2879E+02 + 1.2916E+00 LN(FLOW) + 5.1315E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 7.5257E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.1706E-01 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.884 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 210.44 (114 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.8058E+02 + 1.1717E+00 LN(FLOW) + 4.1598E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.7832E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 9.2152E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.787 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.9283E+02 + 1.1767E+00 LN(FLOW) + 3.8165E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 6.3664E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 9.8350E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Anoka, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 871.6 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.50 7.20 1.40 2.00 3.30 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.22 0.58 0.11 0.16 0.23 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 30. 59. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.70 7.20 1.90 2.30 3.30 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 26. 49. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.70 7.00 1.80 2.40 3.50 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 26. 48. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 3.3 - 3.4 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Anoka, MN STATION NUMBER: UM 871.6 DRAINAGE AREA: 19100.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 586 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 577 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9282. 869. 2901. 4263. 6910. 11525. 19200. 48500. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9246. 728. 2960. 4320. 7070. 11800. 18800. 50100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.5455E+01 + 2.6140E+00 LN(FLOW) - 7.6880E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.6546E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.8400E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.7298E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.318 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 146.50 (114 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.022 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.6162E+01 + 2.4228E+00 LN(FLOW) - 6.6397E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 + 2.2123E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.8109E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.7217E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.315 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 2.4856E+01 + 2.1549E+00 LN(FLOW) - 5.1966E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 3.4022E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.3847E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.5935E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Anoka, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 871.6 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.50 6.10 4.80 2.30 1.00 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.12 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.04 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 28. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.60 6.20 4.90 2.30 1.10 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 30. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.50 5.80 4.70 2.40 1.10 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 29. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 3.6 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Anoka, MN STATION NUMBER: UM 871.6 DRAINAGE AREA: 19100.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (measured as Orthophosphate) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 356 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 345 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1977 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9954. 869. 3390. 4823. 7770. 13000. 19450. 46300. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9246. 728. 2960. 4320. 7070. 11800. 18800. 50100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.8898E+01 + 4.4946E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.7355E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.0566E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 3.3665E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.843 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 92.59 ( 68 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.025 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.8461E+01 + 4.4101E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6939E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 9.6832E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 3.2524E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.827 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.8750E+01 + 4.4139E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.6526E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 6.2673E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 3.0708E-01 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Anoka, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 871.6 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.80 2.80 2.30 1.40 0.58 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.13 0.28 0.20 0.14 0.05 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.80 2.80 2.30 1.40 0.59 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 1.80 3.10 2.30 1.40 0.60 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 13. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 1.8 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Anoka, MN STATION NUMBER: UM 871.6 DRAINAGE AREA: 19100.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Solids LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19760101 TO 19961231 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 552 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 546 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1976 TO 1996 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9248. 869. 2860. 4123. 6875. 11600. 19170. 48500. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 9246. 728. 2960. 4320. 7070. 11800. 18800. 50100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.1077E+01 - 9.6889E-02 LN(FLOW) + 7.6964E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.4097E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 9.9095E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.1762E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.330 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 146.21 (107 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.007 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 5.0409E+01 - 8.8329E-02 LN(FLOW) + 7.6374E-02 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.3846E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 9.8675E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 2.1440E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.328 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 4.7789E+01 - 6.8082E-01 LN(FLOW) + 1.1013E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 - 1.8658E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 9.5056E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.8839E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Anoka, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: UM 871.6 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 630. 1000. 1100. 330. 83. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 26. 56. 48. 16. 3. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 7. 16. 30. 40. 47. 60. 80. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 12. 102. 259. 791. 1662. 2377. 4493. 9816. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 650. 1000. 1100. 340. 85. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 7. 16. 31. 41. 49. 61. 82. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 13. 105. 267. 812. 1702. 2438. 4607. 10060. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 640. 1000. 1100. 360. 87. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 7. 16. 31. 40. 47. 62. 87. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 15. 108. 266. 793. 1678. 2429. 4716. 10696. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 560.