1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Royalton, MN STATION NUMBER: 05267000 DRAINAGE AREA: 11600.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrogen LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 132 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 132 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1995 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5220. 580. 1442. 2880. 4160. 6010. 9582. 31200. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5266. 390. 1620. 2710. 3900. 6520. 10500. 35100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 8.5177E-01 + 1.0865E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.4249E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.1510E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.166 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 51.86 ( 23 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 8.5177E-01 + 1.0865E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.4249E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 2.1510E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.166 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 8.4974E-01 + 1.0822E+00 LN(FLOW) + 1.2643E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 2.6179E-02 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Royalton, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05267000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 15. 25. 15. 10. 9. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 7. 10. 18. 31. 43. 77. 126. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 15. 26. 15. 11. 9. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 7. 10. 18. 32. 44. 79. 129. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 15. 25. 15. 11. 9. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 1. 7. 10. 18. 31. 42. 76. 124. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 15. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Royalton, MN STATION NUMBER: 05267000 DRAINAGE AREA: 11600.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Nitrate + Nitrite LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 132 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 81 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1995 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5226. 580. 1561. 2898. 4200. 6038. 9121. 31200. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5266. 390. 1620. 2710. 3900. 6520. 10500. 35100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.1371E+02 + 4.6379E+00 LN(FLOW) - 2.0895E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 6.9543E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 8.0748E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 4.9071E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 1.032 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 123.31 ( 23 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.0181E+02 + 3.2012E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.3120E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 4.7584E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.6872E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 4.6518E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.875 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.5038E+01 + 2.7370E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.0606E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 4.5915E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 4.5693E-01 COS(DECTIME) + 4.4262E-02 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. WARNING: THE MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATION EXCEEDS TWICE THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED SAMPLE CONCENTRATION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Royalton, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05267000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.00 5.40 1.20 1.50 3.70 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.39 0.94 0.20 0.27 0.59 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 13. 17. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.30 5.60 1.80 2.10 3.60 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 13. 16. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 3.20 5.50 2.00 2.00 3.30 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 2.1 - 2.5 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Royalton, MN STATION NUMBER: 05267000 DRAINAGE AREA: 11600.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Ammonia LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 88 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 82 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1979 TO 1995 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5226. 690. 1765. 3033. 4315. 6158. 9246. 25600. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5266. 390. 1620. 2710. 3900. 6520. 10500. 35100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.3445E+00 + 9.8069E-01 LN(FLOW) + 5.6518E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.4520E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.569 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 19.71 ( 14 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.140 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.1665E+00 + 9.6230E-01 LN(FLOW) + 5.4516E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.2539E-01 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.543 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 1.1153E+00 + 9.6044E-01 LN(FLOW) + 6.0336E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.7385E-01 COS(DECTIME) 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Royalton, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05267000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.84 1.60 0.46 0.47 0.87 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.09 0.24 0.07 0.07 0.11 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.86 1.60 0.48 0.49 0.88 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.88 1.70 0.45 0.47 0.94 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.85 - 0.86 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Royalton, MN STATION NUMBER: 05267000 DRAINAGE AREA: 11600.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Phosphorus LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 135 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 130 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1995 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5229. 580. 1484. 2880. 4200. 6040. 9414. 31200. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5266. 390. 1620. 2710. 3900. 6520. 10500. 35100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.7142E+01 + 9.8058E-01 LN(FLOW) + 8.9111E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.3763E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.9438E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.303 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 59.82 ( 24 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.4996E+01 + 9.7831E-01 LN(FLOW) + 9.2154E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.3190E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.8343E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.294 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 3.5417E+01 + 9.4356E-01 LN(FLOW) + 3.7306E-02 SIN(DECTIME) - 5.1981E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 1.8395E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Royalton, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05267000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.70 1.10 0.93 0.44 0.27 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.05 0.11 0.08 0.04 0.02 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.73 1.20 0.96 0.46 0.28 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.73 1.10 1.00 0.47 0.26 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.74 - 0.75 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Royalton, MN STATION NUMBER: 05267000 DRAINAGE AREA: 11600.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (measured as Dissolved Orthophosphate) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 69 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 32 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1981 TO 1995 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5698. 690. 1820. 3170. 4640. 6790. 10200. 25600. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5266. 390. 1620. 2710. 3900. 6520. 10500. 35100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 9.1684E+01 + 1.4966E+00 LN(FLOW) + 4.2482E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.473 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 60.34 ( 10 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.6095E+01 + 1.3062E+00 LN(FLOW) + 2.5551E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.362 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 2.9214E+00 + 1.0000E+00 LN(FLOW) + 7.4995E-07 DECTIME NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Royalton, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05267000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.18 0.32 0.19 0.13 0.08 STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.02 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.01 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.26 0.44 0.28 0.20 0.13 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 0.28 0.42 0.29 0.24 0.17 PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 0.18 - 0.25 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Royalton, MN STATION NUMBER: 05267000 DRAINAGE AREA: 11600.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Total Suspended Sediment LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 119 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 119 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1994 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5132. 580. 1540. 2880. 4210. 6040. 8960. 31200. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5266. 390. 1620. 2710. 3900. 6520. 10500. 35100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1838E+02 + 1.1919E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.5064E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.2129E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 5.8548E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.824 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 24.42 ( 20 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.225 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1838E+02 + 1.1919E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.5064E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 4.2129E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 5.8548E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.824 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = + 1.1783E+02 + 1.1248E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.7612E-01 SIN(DECTIME) - 5.4401E-01 COS(DECTIME) - 5.7996E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Royalton, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05267000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 220. 340. 300. 170. 74. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 28. 59. 46. 28. 11. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 9. 12. 17. 22. 26. 33. 42. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 65. 114. 258. 506. 771. 1594. 2649. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 220. 340. 300. 170. 74. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 9. 12. 17. 22. 26. 34. 43. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 10. 65. 114. 260. 508. 778. 1630. 2733. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 230. 330. 330. 170. 68. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 8. 12. 18. 25. 29. 35. 44. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 12. 67. 118. 269. 529. 786. 1589. 2523. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 210. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Royalton, MN STATION NUMBER: 05267000 DRAINAGE AREA: 11600.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Chloride LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 134 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 134 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1995 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5234. 580. 1470. 2880. 4200. 6055. 9470. 31200. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5266. 390. 1620. 2710. 3900. 6520. 10500. 35100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.1075E+01 + 7.7541E-01 LN(FLOW) + 2.8252E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.065 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 33.94 ( 23 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.066 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.1075E+01 + 7.7541E-01 LN(FLOW) + 2.8252E-02 DECTIME ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.065 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 4.6859E+01 + 7.7759E-01 LN(FLOW) + 2.6106E-02 DECTIME 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Royalton, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05267000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 57. 77. 59. 50. 40. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 6. 34. 47. 71. 105. 130. 176. 230. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 57. 78. 60. 51. 41. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 34. 47. 72. 106. 131. 178. 233. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 57. 78. 59. 51. 40. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 7. 34. 47. 71. 106. 130. 178. 234. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 55. 1 STATION NAME: Mississippi River at Royalton, MN STATION NUMBER: 05267000 DRAINAGE AREA: 11600.0 SQUARE MILES CONSTITUENT: Dissolved Silica (The values represented here are for SiO2. Values for loads and concentrations have been converted to represent elemental Si. Si = 0.46744 * SiO2 ) LOAD ESTIMATES FOR 19741001 TO 19940930 TOTAL NUMBER OF OBS.: 134 NUMBER OF UNCENSORED OBS.: 134 CALIBRATION DATA PERIOD OF RECORD: 1975 TO 1995 CALIBRATION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5234. 580. 1470. 2880. 4200. 6055. 9470. 31200. PREDICTION DATA SET STREAMFLOW SUMMARY STATISTICS MEAN MINIMUM 10TH PCT 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT MAXIMUM 5266. 390. 1620. 2710. 3900. 6520. 10500. 35100. MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.3354E+00 + 3.2287E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.3452E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 8.4714E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.1417E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.087 TURNBULL-WEISS LIKELIHOOD RATIO NORMALITY TEST STATISTIC = 57.61 ( 23 DF) PROBABILITY LEVEL = 0.001 LINEAR ATTRIBUTION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.3354E+00 + 3.2287E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.3452E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 8.4714E-02 SIN(DECTIME) + 5.1417E-02 COS(DECTIME) ESTIMATED RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.087 LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION ESTIMATE OF BEST FIT MODEL --------------------------------------------------- LN(LOAD) = - 5.3198E+00 + 3.3190E+00 LN(FLOW) - 1.4442E-01 LN(FLOW)**2 + 1.0481E-01 SIN(DECTIME) + 1.3620E-02 COS(DECTIME) NOTE: AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION AND SCHWARZ POSTERIOR PROBABILITY CRITERIA DID NOT SELECT SAME BEST FIT MODEL. MODEL SELECTED ON BASIS OF AIKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION. 1 STATION: Mississippi River at Royalton, MN (CONTINUED) STATION NUMBER: 05267000 LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 120. 180. 120. 100. 87. STD DEV LOAD (TON/DAY) 4. 9. 5. 5. 4. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 68. 100. 160. 238. 291. 404. 498. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LINEAR ATTRIBUTION PARAM. EST.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 120. 180. 120. 100. 87. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 68. 99. 159. 237. 290. 404. 501. LOADS ESTIMATED BY RATING CURVE METHOD (LEAST ABSOLUTE DEVIATION PARAM. EST.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER AVERAGE LOAD (TON/DAY) 120. 170. 120. 97. 86. PREDICTED CONCENTRATION SUMMARY STATISTICS (MG/L) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 4. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. PREDICTED LOAD SUMMARY STATISTICS (TON/DAY) MINIMUM 25TH PCT MEDIAN 75TH PCT 90TH PCT 95TH PCT 99TH PCT MAXIMUM 5. 69. 100. 155. 226. 271. 359. 424. LOAD ESTIMATED BY BEALE RATIO ESTIMATOR --------------------------------------- AVERAGE ANNUAL LOAD (TON/DAY): 120.